Rowleyfile Preview: Peter Marsh Chase

These previews usually start with a bit of preamble, then some trends, then a more holistic view of the race, and finally a selection or selections. But we will do it slightly differently this time (other than that this is arguably the preamble).

Trends tell you one thing about the Peter Marsh Chase, but I think you should look at the race differently. Either way, there is a fairly obvious question: “should you be with Alary, the current 3/1 favourite, or against him?” Alary takes up a lot of the betting, and if the answer is “against” then that may well indicate a good opportunity elsewhere.

It appears a fairly straightforward question but is not so easy to answer. Alary has been widely-touted as The Next Big Thing since coming over from France to join Colin Tizzard, and he certainly kept good company across the Channel, generally running in Group races this season.

But he has not won any of the five races he has run in. His best effort was almost certainly when second in the Group 1 Prix la Haye Jousselin at Auteuil last time. The winner, Milord Thomas, is a classy individual, but it should be noted that no runner-up in the race in the previous five years had run to a rating higher than 160 on Timeform (the average was 153), and yet that is what Alary will have to do to win at Haydock.

He has top-weight and a BHA mark of 162 to contend with. No horse managed to win off higher than 160 in the whole of 2016, and 10 tried. His 13 rivals on Saturday may not be the most in-form bunch ever assembled, but the scale of his task should not be underestimated.

There is also a significant doubt about the stamina of one of the second-favourites, Bristol de Mai, not helped by Haydock announcing that the three miles and 24 yards will be increased by a further 78 yards due to rail movement. The going also promises to be soft.

That will not trouble Definitly Red, who is a very reliable customer, but being raised 8 lb for his win last time may: prior to that, he was beaten by Otago Trail and Bristol de Mai, and is worse off at the weights with that pair.

Otago Trail might indeed be interesting if his last-time pulled-up effort in Ireland could be adequately explained away. The suspicion is that he may just be a hit-and-miss merchant, but he is at least at double-figure odds to compensate.

O’Maonlai is a similarly up-and-down type, but he could not have been much more impressive than when winning at Newbury last time. That race tested speed, and O’Maonlai has further to travel now, but he was notably strong at the end of that race and a rise of 9 lb in his handicap mark does not seem harsh. Again, he is at double-figure odds.

Neither that pair conform to the trends, as the following extracts of the more meaningful findings from the last 10 runnings of the race (which did not take place in 2008, 2011 and 2013) show:

Those trends also illustrate how superficial viewing such things by winners alone is: seven-year-olds and horses high in the Timeform weight-adjusted ratings have fared poorly judged by that “measure” but pretty well by place impact values (places compared to chance) and by % of rivals beaten, which are more meaningful.

Plenty of runs in the season under review, and a shorter absence since the horse’s previous race, could be considered a good thing, while a last-time win has been nothing like the positive it usually is (good news for Otago Trail, but not for O’Maonlai).

However, the suspicion is that O’Maonlai may be best AFTER a break, with a number of his best efforts having come under such circumstances: he has been off for 56 days this time.

Trends suggest Alary is as interesting as any in the field; form and other precedent suggest he is too short as favourite. In addition, the latter approach identifies chinks in the armour of other short-priced horses.

To me, it seems a race in which to take a chance with a couple of able if less consistent types at bigger prices, and O’Maonlai and Otago Trail fit that bill best of all.

Recommendations: 1 pt win O’MAONLAI at 16/1, 1 pt win OTAGO TRAIL at 14/1