Rowleyfile Preview: Pertemps Final

As far as I see it, the virtue of so-called trends analysis is to be aware of any hidden elements about a race which should influence your assessment of the runners therein. If, for instance, young horses or highly-weighted horses tend to do well in a given contest, then you would be a fool to ignore that information.

The shortage or absence of significant trends does not invalidate the exercise, rather the opposite: it gives the green light to tackle a race through form, time and other means, safe in the knowledge that you are not swimming against an otherwise-hidden tide.

The not-much-in-the-way-of-trends scenario is arguably the one which prevails for the Pertemps Network Final Handicap Hurdle at 14:10 on Day Three of the 2019 Cheltenham Festival.

Age essentially makes no difference, weight-carried makes little (especially as none of the 24 plus two reserves will carry under 10-11) and nor does BHA mark (not shown). Position on most recent start points to a prominent, but not winning, performance as being best, if not by much.

Then again, a short turn-round has been a clear positive over the last 10 years (seven of the declared runners qualify), while to be between 17 and 34 (16/1 and 33/1 in fractional terms) at Betfair SP has been neither too short nor too long, but “just right”, in the same timescale.

Putting those together, stronger cases can be made for Boyhood and Tobefair – both placed last time and backing up quickly – than for most. But the picture is far from clear.

As it is, there is one I quite fancy among the others for reasons separate to what happened in this race in the past, and that is Notwhatiam.

The Dan Skelton-trained nine-year-old has three salient characteristics: he tends to be held up in rear; he tends to travel strongly; and he stays very well. They could all play in his favour here.

The hold-up tactics paid off twice at Uttoxeter earlier this term, including on the gelding’s first run since shipping from Ireland, despite steadily-run races which really should not have suited them.

They did not pay off in an even messier race at Warwick last time, when Notwhatiam was a never-dangerous fourth to Keeper Hill in a Qualifier for this Final. But that may have been a blessing in disguise given that he was flying at the finish and managed to preserve his handicap mark as a result. 

The chance of Thursday’s race resembling those earlier races is small. In the large field, there are habitual front-runners in Samburu Shujaa, Coole Cody and Oh Land Abloom (who was an always-prominent second in the Warwick race and who has run well again since), as well as others who should keep them honest.

The ground looks like being testing, and the famous Cheltenham Hill is likely to ensure that anything played prematurely will be treading water by the end.

The abiding impression is that Notwhatiam is capable of winning off his current mark, though that could also be said of a few others in a race as competitive as this one!

It is no surprise to see Sire du Berlais at a short price given how well he shaped under a Davy Russell ride at Leopardstown over Christmas, while that one’s fellow countryman Thermistocles may be the one to take out of those who finished ahead of him that day.

Large-field handicaps, in which four, or possibly even more, places are on offer, make for appealing each-way propositions. The win book at the best early odds came in at 123%, with the place book at 413%, or just 103% per-place. Enhancements are likely to be on offer nearer the time.

Not only is Notwhatiam running in a good each-way race, his run style is that of a good each-way horse. He is likely to be played late in order to pick off rivals at the business end. Let’s hope it is not too late this time!

Recommendation; 1 pt e/w NOTWHATIAM at 12/1