Rowleyfile Preview: Palace House Stakes

The Pearl Bloodstock-sponsored Palace House Stakes at Newmarket on Saturday is a Group 3 rather than a handicap, but you might be forgiven for failing to spot the difference. Fifteen of the 22 declared runners are within 6 lb of Timeform’s top-rated at the weights.

This openness is reflected in the likely betting: Timeform’s early forecast went 8/1 the field.

With such narrow margins at play, the sort of approach usually employed for a big-field handicap seems justified. “Trends” may tell us whether a horse with a given profile can be expected to be suited or unsuited by the demands of the race. The absence of any significant bias may in itself be a useful piece of information.

As usual, the analysis took in the last 10 runnings of this race and measured the effects according to the number of runners, winners and first-three places, the impact value (successes compared to chance) for wins and places, and % of rivals beaten, with the higher figure the better for those last two.

The message from that analysis is: older horses have fared best (half Saturday’s field is seven or older); horses returning from lengthy absences have done quite well; and last-time winners (Cotai Glory is the only one who qualifies) have over-performed compared to chance.

Of more interest, perhaps, are those draw details, with the figures recoded for the change in stall-numbering in 2011 and for non-runners.

There are surprisingly few large-field five furlong races at Newmarket, but five past Palace House Stakes have had 15 or more runners, and horses drawn low have done well in them by every measure, winning nearly twice as often as by chance and placing 1.33 times as often as by chance.

Timeform’s Early Position Figures and pace profiling identify this as likely to be a strongly-run race, with a fair few of the pace-forcers also drawn low. Take Cover (drawn 14) is the likeliest front-runner, but Justineo (drawn 3), Spirit Quartz (4) and Lancelot du Lac (5) could be hot on his heels, while Cotai Glory (10), Jungle Cat (18) and Humidor (21) do not hang around either.

This may all be good news for the horse Steps, who has a lengthy layoff to overcome (see above) but who is very well served by a cutthroat five furlongs on good or good to soft going.

He can be hit or miss, but when he hits – such as when winning the Portland Handicap off a mark of 108 last year – he is a very smart gelding indeed. Roger Varian is likely to have him straighter than he was for his reappearance last year, when he went without his customary headgear, and he is nicely drawn in stall 8. Early odds of 14/1 are tempting enough.

It is also worth giving a second look to the aforementioned Lancelot du Lac, a gelding who is more associated with the all-weather these days but who finished third off a mark of 108 in the Wokingham Handicap at Royal Ascot last summer.

Lancelot du Lac is ultra-game and reliable, and he is as effective at five furlongs as six and on an easy surface as on firm. He looked all over the winner of the All-Weather Sprint Championship at Lingfield last time, but had done a bit too much too soon from a wide draw and was run down by Alben Star.

The six-year-old goes from stall five and can be expected to track the pace rather than get caught up in a dogfight up front. He has what it takes to get involved, and early odds of 20/1 look too big.

That draw information may be of some concern to supporters of the likes of Jungle Cat and Waady (drawn 22), though it must be emphasised that these things can change due to the effects of watering and the vagaries of pace. It is, nonetheless, enough to put me off them at prices shorter than the two selections.

Usual readers will be familiar with the mathematics of each-way betting. Basically, some bookmakers have been offering astonishingly good each-way terms in big handicaps recently, something which followers of this blog have profited from.

The boot is on the other foot in the Palace House Stakes, with a win book of around 130% and a per-place book of around 140% for a quarter the odds and around 165% for a fifth the odds, with only three places on offer.

Each-way betting makes little appeal under such circumstances, so win only is the way to go.

Recommendations

1 pt win STEPS

1 pt win LANCELOT DU LAC