Rowleyfile Preview: Old Rowley Cup Handicap 2016

The big handicap on Newmarket’s excellent Friday card presents a different conundrum to the one usually tackled in these previews. The Old Rowley Cup – backed this year by Godolphin Flying Start – is a race with little history, having been run just twice before, and there are no obviously similar races of longer standing to borrow from, either.

“Trends” do not provide much of a way into a race in such circumstances. However, by splitting the population into just two cohorts for each category, and using the superior and more sensitive measure of % of rivals beaten (which mines all of the data and not just a subsection of it), it is at least possible to tackle some of the questions.

These were the findings.

None of those apparent effects is particularly large, but lower-drawn horses have outperformed higher-drawn ones (which is what one would expect given there is a sharp right-handed bend two furlongs into the race) and horses with lower BHA marks have done better than those with higher ones.

That is at least worth bearing in mind. In particular, the draw has not been kind to the likes of Banish, Southdown Lad, Scarlet Dragon and Manjaam with 18 runners having been declared. Their jockeys, more than others, are faced with a tricky choice between going forward and possibly covering more ground, or taking back and possibly being poorly positioned as a result.

That aside, however, there is no harm in focusing to a greater degree on some more conventional aspects of racing analysis in this instance.

What kind of a pace can we expect? Timeform says “strongly contested” and the likes of Lord Yeats (EPF of 1.1), New Caledonia (1.9), Beaverbrook (2.1) and Saunter (2.2) could all be helping to force it.

Which trainers are in form? Runners representing David Menuisier (seemingly an up-and-coming star) and Hugo Palmer have respectively beaten around 69% of their rivals in handicaps since August. Those representing Ed Dunlop, Sylvester Kirk and Mark Johnston are below 45%.

After all these factors, and more besides, were taken into account, I came down in favour of two runners who could just be sufficiently ahead of the handicapper to overcome any minor disadvantages in other respects.

First and foremost, the Alan King-trained Cosmeapolitan looks very capable of winning off a mark of 92 now that he is returning to what will probably prove his best trip of a mile and a half. That was the distance of the Newbury lady riders’ race in which he slammed Samtu and others by 10 lengths and more on his penultimate start.

The distance was nearly 14 and a half furlongs (including the effects of rail movements) when he came unstuck in the mud at Haydock last time, but he went all over like the winner there until his stamina gave way late in the day.

Cosmeapolitan is 12 higher than in that Newbury race and 2 higher than in that Haydock race, but on both occasions he shaped like he could easily run well into the 100s, and that should be enough to see him go very close in this. A draw in stall 10 may not prove ideal, but it could also be a lot worse.

The other one is the aforementioned Saunter, the winner of a maiden at Goodwood on his penultimate start by five lengths and of a handicap at this course last time by two and three quarters. He is up 9 lb for the latter – to a mark of 99 – which would usually put me off, but he could really come into his own for the step up to 12f given how strongly he finished off a well-run race that day.

A favourable word can be said about a number of the others – not least Danehill Kodiac, whose form looks rock solid – but few have anything like the potential of the two selections, and this looks a race which will go to an upwardly mobile individual.

Eighteen runners make for some fairly appealing each-way terms, and that looks the way to go with Cosmeapolitan, but Saunter is more likely to be an all-or-nothing proposition.

The early odds, which took a while to appear, are a bit skimpy (over 130% win book) so readers may be able to beat the initial 12/1 Cosmeapolitan and 8/1 Saunter by shopping around later.

Recommendations: 1 pt each way COSMEAPOLITAN, 1 pt win SAUNTER