Rowleyfile Preview: Old Newton Cup

Before we go any further, we need to talk about the elephant in the room. One of the likeliest winners, and probably the best bet, in Saturday’s bet365 Old Newton Cup at Haydock is currently a reserve and will not be participating unless there is a defection from the 17 above him before 1 pm on Friday.

The lightly-raced four-year-old Infrastructure, from a back-to-form stable and with an encouraging reappearance under his belt, looks somewhere between nicely in and chucked in judged on his defeat of the subsequent Group-class performer Mekong at Salisbury this time last year.

He should be suited by the return to around a mile and a half on good to firm going and would get weight from all his rivals.

But he probably will not run, and we need to look at the alternatives if that is indeed the case, or if that is not the case for that matter.

As usual, we can start with a consideration of 10-year trends, looked at through the prism of % of rivals beaten and win and place impact values, among other measures. These are some of the key ones.

Four-year-olds have fared best, if not by a lot, and certainly nowhere near as well as might be imagined by looking at winners only without reference to opportunity at the same time. That age-group has provided six of the last 10 winners but also a fraction over half of the runners in that time.

An inside-to-middle draw has been best, especially as judged by % of rivals beaten, as have higher-weighted horses and, oddly, horses which were out of the first three without necessarily running poorly on their most recent appearances.

That last-named effect is surprisingly strong, and I cannot offer a clear explanation for it at this stage.

There is also that “performance at Betfair SP” finding to explain (with stakes varied to return 100 points in line with the horses’ respective odds), though it should be acknowledged that measuring wins only is more binary than ideal here, also. Future analysis may consider Betfair Place SP.

Nonetheless, it may be enough to put you off horses whose BFSPs are under 10.0 (9/1 in fractional odds). That would be First Eleven and Al Muffrih – two horses with undeniably good chances on the face of it – at the time of writing.

Incidentally, Infrastructure is a four-year-old who finished fourth last time and would come from stall 8 if he took part, so there is not much that is off-putting there.

The only other four-year-old to have finished between fourth and sixth last time in Saturday’s field is Charles Kingsley (drawn 14, should become 13 in effect), and there is a less obvious reason to think he will perform well in the big race.

Charles Kingsley is trained by Mark Johnston, and, whatever else you think about the disputatious Middleham maestro, you must admit that a lot of his horses thrive on their racing.

I referred to this in a recent edition of Kingsley Klarion (Johnston’s in-house magazine), showing that the stable’s older horses achieve their highest average Timeform performance ratings in a given year from start seven onwards, whereas the peak more widely is from starts four to six.

At start number eight of 2019, Charles Kingsley may only just be getting going. As it is, he has done perfectly well so far, winning two handicaps and finishing second three times, advancing his Timeform rating from 90 to 107 along the way.

He is on the same mark as when a close fifth to Island Brave (3 lb worse off) and Kelly’s Dino (2 lb worse off) at Ayr last time and twice got interfered with along the way that day.

It might be even better if this race was over 13f/14f, rather than 12f, but there does look to be the likelihood of a pace that will test stamina (Timeform pace forecast “very strong”).

Granted a minimum of 16 runners (17 is the intention), this is a good race to tackle from an each-way point of view. The best-price win book for the non-reserves is 109% (you would need to stake £109 in total in proportion to each horse’s odds to guarantee a return of £100 whichever horse won) and the per-place book is just 87%, though be mindful of Rule 4 deductions.

This is not far off a zero-sum proposition, so the advice is to back both Infrastructure (getting your money back if he does not make the cut) and Charles Kingsley each way.

Recommendation:

1 pt e/w INFRASTRUCTURE at 12/1 (money back if non-runner)

0.5 pt e/w CHARLES KINGSLEY at 14/1, both ¼ odds first four places