Rowleyfile Preview: Old Borough Handicap 2016

If you are unfamiliar with the historical background of the “32Red Casino Handicap” at Haydock on Saturday, then you are not alone. The race used to be known as The Old Borough Cup, and preserved that element in its title when sponsorship from various bookmakers arrived, only to lose it this year. This – it would appear – is the price you sometimes have to pay for “progress”.

Be that as it may, the fact that a valuable 14f handicap has been run at the track in early-September for many years gives the punter the opportunity to delve into the past to attempt to solve the riddle of the immediate future.

As is customary with these previews, we will look first at the types of horses that have fared well and badly in the race over the last decade, measuring performance not only by wins and places but by impact values (success compared to chance) and % of rivals beaten. The higher, the better, in all instances.

Those eye-catchingly good figures for three-year-olds are sadly redundant this year, with that age-group being unrepresented, but it is also clear that four-year-olds have outperformed older horses to a sizeable degree.

The effect of the draw may seem irrelevant at this distance, but the evidence is that horses drawn in the centre have fared better than those on the flanks, with the 14f start little more than a furlong before the left-handed turn into the back straight. That is precious little ground in which to get a good position in a large field.

Last-time winners have done well (Magic Circle and Walpole the only qualifiers this time), though that is nearly always the case in races of this nature. Additionally, a horse having at least one win this year is a plus (only 8 of the 17 declared on Saturday have managed that), and an absence of more than two months represents a minus.

I also looked at the performance in handicaps since July of trainers with runners in the race, measured by % RB, with 50% being “par”. Luca Cumani (trainer of Shakopee) leads the way with an excellent 71.8%, followed by Ed Walker (Justice Belle) on 64.8%. Jane Chapple-Hyam (The Twisler, 39.5%) and Richard Spencer (Excellent Result, 42.0%) bring up the rear.

Then there is the likely pace profile of the race. This is uncharacteristically weak for a contest of its type, as judged by Timeform’s unique Early Position Figures. Only Intense Tango (EPF of 1.6) could be considered a true pace-forcer, while several of the runners have held-up profiles of 3.8 or more.

This indicates that it could prove to be a tactical advantage to be forwardly placed, and that stamina may not be tested as much as it would be otherwise. Out-and-out stayers are the obvious ones to suffer.

On the back of this, I considered each horse’s individual claims and priced the race up as a whole. There are a couple of worthwhile bets in my book.

The aforementioned Shakopee has a slightly tricky draw and a possibly problematical pace scenario to overcome, but in other respects looks comfortably the likeliest winner to me.

He probably has just about the best form – courtesy of his neck second to the very smart Barsanti at York’s Ebor Meeting last time – not to mention the greatest amount of potential for improvement in stepping up from 12f, and, as already pointed out, Cumani is doing well at present.

Those hung up on wins only as a means for measuring performance will point to Cumani’s having just three of them from 20 runners in handicaps in August. But, remarkably, a further nine finished second and only three finished outside the first four.

The potentially tactical nature of Saturday’s race may well be less of a problem for a horse with recent winning form at an extended 10f, and I had Shakopee in at 5/1 for this.

The other one to be interested in is the lowly-weighted Intense Tango, who also finished second last time. That was a race at Nottingham in which she got the run of things, but getting the run of things could well occur again, and she is a highly consistent performer who should deliver once again. Jockey Clifford Lee – who claims 7 lb as usual – had a very healthy 61.2% RB in handicaps in August.

Magic Circle and Walpole deserve to be shorter than Intense Tango, but she arguably should be next in, at around 10/1, so her early odds appeal also.

Seventeen runners makes the race tempting from an each-way point of view, though no bookmakers are currently offering five places and there is a danger of the field size dropping below the required 16.

Intense Tango – been there, done that, as often as not – looks particularly good place material. Shakopee is more a win-only proposition. Between her and Shakopee, punters should find they have a fighting chance.

Recommendations: 2 pts win SHAKOPEE at 6/1; 1 pt each way INTENSE TANGO at 16/1 (1/4 odds 1, 2, 3, 4)