Rowleyfile Preview: Northumberland Plate

You come across some counter-intuitive facts in this line of work, but not many more so than the apparent effect of the draw in the Betfair Exchange Northumberland Plate, Saturday’s big handicap at Newcastle, due off at 3:35.

The race is over an extended two miles, which is not the kind of distance commonly associated with draw biases, and with a sweeping left-handed bend after just a couple of furlongs. You might think that would suit those drawn low and nearest the inside: not a bit of it.

Taking the three editions of the Northumberland Plate since it was switched to a Tapeta surface, plus the consolation Vase over the same course and distance over the same time, gives the following figures:

Just one of the six winners, and eight of the 23 placed horses, came from the inside 10 stalls, with the inside five beating a miserable 37% of their rivals where 50% is par. The last two winners of the Plate came from stalls 13 and 11 (after recoding for non-runners), while the last three Vase winners came from stalls 16, 11 and 18.

The obvious conclusion is that horses up the inner get crowded and/or forced to race inefficiently more than those out wider. It is not clear that the market sees it that way, though: the favourite for this year’s Plate – Gibbs Hill – is berthed in stall five.

We can also look at some other trends for the race known colloquially as The Pitmen’s Derby. These consider the Plate in isolation over the last 10 years.

There are some slightly mixed messages there, but a small advantage to five-year-olds and six-year-olds over other age-groups may be observed, similar applies for horses running off higher BHA marks, as it does for those which finished quite close but without winning on their most recent starts.

Those “absence” figures are not overwhelmingly strong but might make you think twice about siding with one on a quick turn-around, such as coming here from Royal Ascot.

That is no issue where the aforementioned Gibbs Hill is concerned, for he has been off for almost exactly two years. His trainer, Roger Varian, is in by far the best form of those with runners in Saturday’s race as judged by % of rivals beaten in handicaps in June, at 72.4%. Roger Charlton (Withhold) is next on 60.1%.

One thing which seems likely is that this year’s Plate will be well-run (it was not when Withhold won 12 months ago with a 106.6% finishing speed): three of the runners have Timeform Early Position Figures of under 2.0 and a further four weigh in at 2.2.

Decision time. Well, I won’t be joining in the plunge on Gibbs Hill, for all that he is well-treated on Timeform weight-adjusted figures and even open to improvement at this, the longest trip that he has tried. Good luck with that project if you do.

Instead, I am going to side with a couple each way at bigger odds in what is a good each-way race. The win book at early prices is 125%, but the per-place book (at one-quarter those win odds the first four places) is just a break-even 100%. To have some of the latter you have to have some of the former, unfortunately!

My two against the field are Proschema and Austrian School, who are drawn in stalls 17 and 19 respectively.

The former has been returning steadily to form and looked as if he would be suited by an extra couple of furlongs when a rallying third to Red Galileo and Speedo Boy at Newmarket last time. He ticks some of those trends boxes, but not all of them, and is a backable price.

Austrian School looked like he might make into a genuine Cup horse when winning easily at Musselburgh on his return, but has stuttered since, while managing a third to stablemate Dee Ex Bee in Sandown’s Henry II Stakes. He did too much too soon at York last time, however, and looks over-priced given his innate talent and success on all-weather in the past.

Proschema has suitability to the surface still to prove, but this race looks to have been the plan for a while. The Betfair Exchange-sponsored Northumberland Plate has £150,000 added in prize money, and it is certainly worth winning.

Recommendations:

0.5 pt e/w PROSCHEMA at 14/1, one quarter the odds first four places

0.5 pt e/w AUSTRIAN SCHOOL at 25/1, one quarter the odds first four places