Rowleyfile Preview: Melbourne Cup

For a relatively young country, Australia has built up an impressive history, not least in the sporting arena.

Take the Melbourne Cup, first run in 1861 – 40 years before Australia achieved independence and less than a century after the first British settlement – and long established as one of the world’s premier horseraces, with the pomp and pageantry to match.

Some other contests around the world are won by better horses, and a few are even more valuable, but no other “stops a nation” as this one claims to do, and indeed does.

It is a truly international contest these days, as well, won first by a Northern Hemisphere horse in 1993 (Vintage Crop) and regularly attracting several contenders from the other side of the world.

This year’s race, due to be run at 15:00 local time on Tuesday and 04:00 back in Blighty, features 11 of 24 final acceptors trained in Europe and prize money of nearly £4m.

I popped along to Flemington on Saturday for Victoria Derby Day, as you do, and can confirm that the track is long, left-handed, galloping and in superb condition.

Think: Doncaster, but with a stunning cityscape backdrop, a shorter straight, and with the majority of brazenly-flaunted tans actually being genuine. On second thoughts, don’t think Doncaster too much after all!

An institution like the Melbourne Cup is inviting for trends analysis as the same sorts of attributes are tested year after year. This is what some of the trends say about the race in the last decade.

As usual, on these pages, the most important measures are those of first-four impact value (factor by which horses from the specified category placed compared to chance, with 1.0 being par) and % of rivals beaten (with 50% being par).

As can be seen, there has been a slight advantage to horses of a middling age, drawn in the middle of the large field, and who have raced in mid-division (as defined by that Timeform Early Position Figure of 3). At the same time, horses carrying higher weights have tended to over-perform, if not by much.

The most interesting figures of all, however, are those for where a horse was trained, with raiders from outside Australia and New Zealand having done better than the home contingent given the two groups’ relative opportunities. Some selection bias may be at play here – there is not much point sending a dud half way round the world – but the take-home message is nonetheless the same.

Then, there are those foreign raiders separated according to whether or not they had at least one “lead-up” race in Australia.

Those that had, have done better still (my thanks go to local racing gurus Murray Dwyer and Robbie Waterhouse for help with sourcing the figures). Indeed, you could legitimately split the field into “foreign with a prep race” (which have done well) and “others”.

A few foreign raiders have gone close “straight off the plane” in recent years, including runners-up Heartbreak City, Max Dynamite and Red Cadeaux. But the smaller contingent that acclimatised with at least one run Down Under include all three of those recent foreign-trained winners. 

The graphic below shows how those trends map to the individual horses who will line up on Tuesday, with green indicating a positive expectation in that category. One horse stands out, and that horse is Marmelo.

The Hughie Morrison-trained four-year-old has had a classic preparation, shipped across after a win in the Group 2 Prix Kergorlay at Deauville in August and shaping well when sixth in the Caulfield Cup at Caulfield last month.

Marmelo has a central draw (if only just), a touch of class reflected in his high weight, and a run style which suggests he will not be too beholden to the run of things under local star Hugh Bowman. This will be the horse’s first try at beyond 15f, and he promises to be suited by it.

For good measure, the horse who got the better of Marmelo at Saint-Cloud in July, Talismanic, went and won the Breeders’ Cup Turf at Del Mar on Saturday.

I have to admit to having backed Thomas Hobson, who sneaked in at the eleventh hour, at a big price some time ago. He does not have a great draw but is lightly weighted and an interesting contender despite not ticking all the boxes.

However, this is a “profile” piece, and in terms of profile Marmelo scores well on a number of counts: I intend getting him on my side also. He looks booked to run a big race, and odds of around 8/1 make the risk worth it.

Recommendation: 1 pt win MARMELO at 8/1