Rowleyfile Preview: Lincoln Handicap

The importance of the going tends to be overstated in horseracing, especially by those closest to the action, who are permitted to justify withdrawals for no reason other than minuscule perceived changes in the state of the surface. But it can have an effect in itself, and it can also have an effect on associated aspects of a race. Such as the draw.

This may be significant where Saturday’s Betway-sponsored Lincoln Handicap at Doncaster is concerned. The ground is currently described as “good to soft” – with the going-stick reading of 7.0 bearing that out – and under such conditions highly-drawn horses have prospered over the years. But if the surface were to dry out, the effect could be expected to lessen.

This we know from consideration of all Lincoln and Spring Miles – both of which are early-season straight-mile handicaps with consistently large fields – from 2008 onwards, with % of rivals beaten being the most meaningful measure. 

All other things being equal, give me a horse with a high draw (stalls 16 to 22), from which category over 28% of horses have made the first four over the years. But especially so if the ground is as currently described.

Ten-year trends need to concentrate on the Lincoln itself, of course, but it seems permissible to include the 2007 running (not included in the draw analysis) despite its having taken place at Newcastle. This is what they tell us.

In summary, four-year-olds have the best record, as do last-time winners (George Cinq is the only qualifier) and horses which last ran in roughly the final three months of the previous year.

Those handicap mark findings are probably best viewed in terms of “high”, “medium high/low” and “low” (which has underperformed) on account of variations in the level of BHA marks over time. Horses with little chance on Timeform ratings have also performed poorly.

As it happens, I am going to over-rule most of those trends, other than the draw. It is not that I am ignoring them – they have been factored in – but there is only one thing that really matters, and that is value. The horses with the best trends and best chances look under-priced if anything.

Yuften deserves to be favourite, but odds of around 9/2 are about one point less than he merits, in my book. I thought Donncha (drawn 21) had a pretty good chance but expected him to be just about double-figure odds and not as short as 7/1, especially given that it is nearly two years since he last won.

A lack of the winning habit could well be an issue with Emell, who is drawn in stall 22 and shaped with some promise at Wolverhampton recently, for he has gone 25 starts since his last win, in April 2015. Other than that, it is possible that he is over-priced at 33/1 in a race in which he finished sixth a year ago off a 5-lb higher mark.

A similar remark could have been made about Highland Colori for most of his recent history, but he had a good season in 2016 and got his head in front at York in October, his first success for three years. In terms of Timeform ratings, he only once ran below 95 – with his best effort being a 107 when a close sixth at Ascot – in a dozen starts. He may be quirky, but he is pretty consistent.

Highland Colori has edged back down the handicap to a mark of 99, which is two less than Ascot and four more than York. While his age counts against him in terms of trends, he should go close in a race which is weaker than usual if in form. At odds of 33/1 it does not take much to find out.

How to back Highland Colori is not entirely straightforward, but each way is a better proposition mathematically than win only.

At best early odds, the win book on the Lincoln is 118% (you would need to stake £118 proportional to the horses’ odds to return £100 regardless of the outcome), while the place odds are 97% per-place for four places at a quarter of those win odds.

That is fractionally better for an each-way bet than taking 1/5 the odds six places (133% win book, 85% per-place), which is available in one place, but there is not a lot in it. As ever, shop around for the best terms available, but I will go with the former and hope that Highland Colori continues to put his best foot forward.

Recommendation: 0.5 pt each way HIGHLAND COLORI, ¼ odds four places at 33/1

Click here to read Ben Fearnley's Cammidge Trophy preview