Rowleyfile Preview: Lincoln Handicap

It can be a bit of a shock to the system at this time of the year to switch from previews of jump races to previews of Flat ones. All of a sudden, you have to give consideration to the effect of the draw, and increased prominence to pace and other factors.

Nonetheless, a lot of the usual principles apply: consider the evidence, do your homework, never lose sight of the concept of value. Flat or jumps, those tenets should take you a long way.

When considering the Unibet Lincoln Handicap at Doncaster on Saturday – the traditional curtain-raiser of the Flat season “proper” – it is worth starting off with pace and draw, which are best viewed in conjunction in most cases. Doncaster’s mile is straight and does not have a major draw bias, but even little ones can make a lot of difference in the fine-margin world of the Flat.

The “%RB” figure is the average % of rivals beaten by that stall and the stalls on either side in the last 10 years. Highly-drawn horses have performed fractionally better than the 50% par, while horses drawn in the middle have fared slightly worse.

What pace there is – and there is rather less than might be expected in such a large field – seems to be low and middle-to-high, based on those unique consolidated Timeform Early Position Figures (EPF), which identify front-runners as 1.0 and out-the-backers as 5.0.

It all seems to represent a small negative to those drawn middle and middle-to-low, though others might interpret things differently. If the pace proves to be tepid then that will count against hold-up horses, who will additionally have to pick their ways through a sizeable field.

We can also look at a few key trends from the last decade of the race.

Five four-year-olds have won and 12 have made the first four from 46 representatives in the last decade, which is at a rate more than double pure chance (as shown by those “IV” impact values). Meanwhile, that entire cohort has beaten 60.1% of its rivals, where 50.0% is par. All those figures are notably healthy.

There are also good returns for horses high up on Timeform weight-adjusted ratings, those starting at 16/1 or bigger at Betfair SP (with stakes varied according to odds so that freak results do not skew the returns), and those finishing just outside the places on their most recent starts.

Figures for weight carried and BHA mark are not shown as the compression of both this year renders them largely irrelevant. There is also a small bias against horses returning after 21 days or less (they have beaten 47.8% of their rivals). The days of desiring proof of recent fitness in this race seem to be behind us.

Eight of the 22 runners are “of the right age”, including the ante-post favourite Auxerre, who has won three of his four starts and represents possibly the best trainer in the world on current form in Charlie Appleby.

There is plenty to like about Auxerre, but if you are thinking of lumping on at a short price you may wish to consider the following. The gelding is 7 lb higher than when winning narrowly at Kempton in October on his most recent start from a rival who was stuffed off 5 lb higher next time. That effort was, nonetheless, much better than Auxerre’s two earlier starts on top-of-the-ground turf.

There are also doubts regarding other well-fancied Lincoln contenders in Saltonstall (ran badly after a good win at the Curragh in May), Humbert and South Seas (both of whom hinted at temperament and are others to have changed stables).

Given those earlier figures, which include the encouragement to look beyond the obvious when backing at Betfair SP, I reckon it is worth giving a chance to Great Prospector, a four-year-old with some other trends in his favour.

The Richard Fahey-trained gelding was considered good enough to contest the Dewhurst Stakes and Free Handicap earlier in his career (admittedly to little avail) and showed clear signs of being on his way back on his starts late in 2018. He had little chance given the run of the race at Lingfield on the final one but still ran the fastest last 2f to finish less than two lengths fifth against useful rivals

Great Prospector is unexposed at a mile, having finished well in a strongly-run race on his only attempt at the trip, and may end up well-berthed in stall 19. It is possible to interpret things more negatively, for sure, but then it is not as if he is at a short price.

As indicated several times previously, races like the Lincoln tend to be good vehicles for each-way bets. The best early price win book for the Lincoln was 115%, while the per-place book derived from that (at one quarter the odds first four) was just 94%. Each-way makes sound mathematical sense.

Recommendation: 0.5 pt e/w Great Prospector at 40/1, ¼ odds first four places