Rowleyfile Preview: Lincoln Handicap

The word “heuristics” is one you will come across quite often in statistics and data analysis. One definition is “the process of using mental shortcuts to facilitate decision-making through educated guesses and common sense”.

Faced with an enormity of options, heuristics guide us to a decision when the alternative may be paralysis through uncertainty.

Humans are good at devising heuristics – whether it is of how to cross a busy road that has not been crossed before, of how to make a selection in a horserace, or of how to accomplish many other things – but they are not so good at testing those heuristics against evidence.

You should always test heuristics against evidence where possible, otherwise your “common sense” may prove to have been common nonsense all along.

For instance, I had long imagined that a recent run was a significant advantage in the prestigious Lincoln Handicap at Doncaster. This is probably a legacy of my youth, when the race came at the end of a five-month break and many horses turned up for it not fully fit.

While there are now winter options on the all-weather and abroad, there has also been an evolution in training techniques which means that it is more customary for horses to be brought to peak fitness without going near a racecourse.

So, let us look at what the evidence says on that score, as well as on some other scores, as judged by the last 10 editions of the race, sponsored this year by bookmakers Betway. The 2006 and 2007 runnings took place at Redcar and Newcastle but have been included, other than for draw purposes.

There are no overwhelming “trends” to take into account, though that in itself may be a useful counter-intuitive finding. The evidence is that a horse having had no runs in the current year may be considered to be at a small advantage, as may be a higher handicap mark and a last-time win.

That is as judged by the powerful % of rivals beaten measure, though the impact-value figures (wins or places compared to chance) for last-time winners are more positive still.

Age is fairly ambiguous, though the evidence gives a thumbs down for horses aged seven and older, none of which has been successful since 1998.

It is important, however, not to view these things as black or white: some older horses have run well (eight have been placed in the last decade), as have some horses with a recent run under their belts, and so on.

It is, nonetheless, pretty impressive that one out of ten of last-time winners have prevailed and more than one out of three have made the first four. There are just four “qualifiers” in that regard this year: Lord of The Land, Express Himself, Bravo Zolo and Ingleby Angel.

Of these, I like Express Himself most at the odds. The Ed McMahon-trained gelding was consistent in 2015, winning twice at Haydock. He also won on soft going (which seems likely on Saturday) there as a three-year-old, but has form elsewhere, including on this track. He does not have a recent run to his name.

Express Himself generally comes from behind, and it is not certain that the pace will be strong enough in the Lincoln to make that happen. But – from stall 7 – he is drawn close to some clear speed in Beach Bar (stall 9) and near to another presser in Ocean Tempest (11). 

It also looks as if Secret Brief will be over-priced, for all that he does not fit the trends so well. The Charlie Appleby-trained four-year-old is another largely consistent sort, and he ran up to his best when third off this mark at Meydan in February.

Secret Brief has not won since he was a juvenile, but his successes then included an easy one at Thirsk on the only occasion on which he encountered ground as soft as this. He is drawn in stall 22 of 22 but has the likes of Fire Ship (stall 16), Rene Mathis (17) and Battle of Marathon (18) nearby to assist his closing style.

It might be tempting to put the Lincoln Handicap in the “too difficult” box, but some of those bookmakers who lined our pockets at Cheltenham and on AW Finals Day are making having an each-way bet very attractive again.

The two (including the sponsors) who are offering one-quarter the odds first FIVE places are betting to 128% the win book but a mere 83% per place on the place book, meaning each-way bets under such circumstances are mathematically much better propositions than win-only bets.

Express Himself and Secret Brief both place more often than par and have the sort of run style that should see them making late gains. They should both be backed – each way, of course.

Recommendations

1 pt each-way EXPRESS HIMSELF

0.5 pt each-way SECRET BRIEF

(both ¼ the odds first five places)

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