Rowleyfile Preview: Ladbrokes Trophy

British racing’s longest-running commercial sponsorship is no more, as the Ladbrokes Trophy this year replaces the sporting landmark that was the Hennessy Gold Cup.

In all crucial respects, it is the same – a high-quality long-distance handicap chase at Newbury a few weeks before Christmas – but there is a sense that we have lost something unique which has been replaced by something which is not.

The continuity, however, means that those who like “trends” can tackle the race as one and the same.

As usual, I looked at a few categories over the last decade, measuring results in a number of ways, of which the most meaningful are Place Impact Value (factor by which a horse in a category made the first four compared to chance) and % of Rivals Beaten. These were the most pertinent findings.

Those trends are not especially strong, but they could help us.

In summary, the youngest age-group have fared best (seven-year-olds, who looked good judged just on winners, are remarkably neutral when judged by other means); horses running off higher BHA marks have over-performed slightly; likewise, horses that had made the first three on their most recent starts.

There is almost nothing in it in terms of days of absence, but that in itself could be considered newsworthy: don’t let the length of layoff concern you, all other things being equal.

There are fewer trainers than usual who are “in form”, as measured by %RB in handicaps since September. Harry Fry (trainer of American) is best on 65.4%, followed by Paul Nicholls (Present Man and Braqueur d’Or) on 58.6%, Alan King (Label des Obeaux) on 56.4% and Noel Meade (A Genie In Abottle) on 56.1%.

As is sometimes the case, Willie Mullins’ performance in handicaps only (which provide for a level playing field for measurement) is worse than might be imagined. He is on just 41.7%.

I did unearth one other angle with The Race Formerly Known As The Hennessy, which I will share with you now. Horses who have raced close up – as measured by Timeform Early Position Figures – have fared well in recent years. Here are the figures, presented graphically.

In a wider contest, a prominent early position is usually a good thing, and not just in British racing, either. This is primarily because of sample bias: leaders are coping well enough to lead, whereas horses out the back include those who cannot keep up for whatever reason.

But the performance of EPF =1 horses (leading or nearly leading early) in the Hennessy has outstripped even this “universal bias” this decade.

Leaders will pay if they go too fast, but held-up horses have a lot more traffic to pick their way through in a big field and with numerous fences, so it can sometimes be a price worth paying to avoid trouble. With 21 having been declared this year, the “big field” scenario certainly applies.

Putting the all the above together should encourage us to view favourably: younger more highly-weighted horses, especially those who finished close up last time and who tend to race prominently.

One horse qualifies more than any other, and that is A Genie In Abottle, a pace-forcing six-year-old, running off a mark of 152 and with two wins out of two to his name already this season. As has been noted, his trainer, Noel Meade, is in decent form.

Those wins have been at Galway – where he accounted for 158-rated Mala Beach – and Wexford, but he has form at more galloping tracks, including a third to Disko in a Grade 1 Novice Chase at Punchestown in April, and thrives in testing ground.

A positive interpretation of A Genie In Abottle’s form makes him a high-150s or possibly 160 horse, and he gets to run off a BHA mark of 152 here. There are good reasons to think he can place at least.

It is also the case that an each-way bet makes mathematical sense in this instance. The best-price win book on Friday morning came in at 123%, while the place book at one quarter those win odds was at 99.5% per-place. It is better to back each-way than win-only, in other words.

That is the recommendation here. All we need now is a bit of luck along the way.

Recommendation: 1 pt each way A GENIE IN ABOTTLE at 12/1, ¼ odds first 4 places