Rowleyfile Preview: Irish Grand National

If you ever feel your job is tough, then spare a thought for whoever ends up commentating on the Boylesports-sponsored Irish Grand National at 5 o’clock on Easter Monday at Fairyhouse.

As if picking out what happens to 30 runners over three miles and five furlongs, over a total of 24 fences, around the twists, turns and undulations of this rather idiosyncratic course, is not hard enough, a remarkable 12 of the runners (at the latest count) will be wearing Gigginstown colours and another five the silks of arch rival J P McManus.

At least that potential for confusion is not a consideration for anyone when trying to pick out a bet, although it may be once the race gets under way.

With such a historic race – first run in 1870 and won by such jumping immortals as Arkle, Flyingbolt and Desert Orchid – there are at least plenty of trends to go on, as well as more conventional form considerations. The following are some of the key findings from the last 10 editions, with higher figures for Place Impact Value and % of Rivals Beaten worth looking out for, as usual.

Somewhat surprisingly, perhaps, those of advanced years have a slight advantage over callow youth: the opposite is usually the case in big handicaps. What is lost by being more exposed is more than compensated for by past experience of the kind of hurly burly that will be encountered here.

Higher-weighted horses have fared quite a bit more poorly than could be expected, a reasonably lengthy absence is a small plus rather than a minus, and a prominent finishing position on a horse’s most recent start can be considered a small positive.  

Those figures for “performance at Betfair SP” are interesting. The stakes are varied according to the odds to return 100 points if successful, and you might have expected five or six winners at under 20 (19/1 in fractional odds) but have got just two. It has paid to look beyond the obvious, at least in recent years.

While agreeing with the bookmakers that Any Second Now and Burrows Saint are the likeliest winners, despite their youth, there are reasons to believe that Measureofmydreams might be over-priced.

A veteran at the age of 11, who has sneaked in at number 28 on a feather weight of 10-00, Measureofmydreams was a smart performer “back in the day”, when he came third in the National Hunt Chase at the Cheltenham Festival and started joint-favourite off a 10-lb higher mark than Monday’s in the Scottish Grand National, only to fall.

That was for Willie Mullins, after which Measureofmydreams spent a while in the wilderness with Noel Meade. There have been signs, however, that he may be back to where he once was in the care of the maestro Gordon Elliott this term.

He ran an encouraging third under a considerate ride in a minor chase on this course in February (will meet the winner, Snugsborough Benny, on 10 lb better terms for being beaten six and a half lengths) then got punted off the boards for the Fulke Walwyn Kim Muir at last month’s Cheltenham Festival.

Things went wrong from the off that day, with Measureofmydreams flat-footed at a standing start, clouting an early one, and never really looking like getting into it.

In the circumstances, eighth of 17 finishers behind Any Second Now (who will be 8 lb worse off in this) was by no means a bad outcome.

If those who punted Measureofmydreams last time go in again, he will start a lot shorter than his early price.

Others to consider from the older brigade include Pairofbrowneyes and last year’s one-two General Principle (faller in the Grand National at Aintree last time) and Isleofhopendreams (a back-to-form second in the Leinster National last time).

I will also be interested in seeing how the maiden C’est Jersey fares, after he had the misfortune of running into the outstanding Duc des Genievres last time, but he is short of experience – and possibly stamina – for the task at hand.

A large field means a minimum of four places, and some decidedly advantageous each-way terms are on offer. Therefore, the recommendation is to side with Measureofmydreams in that market.

Recommendation: 0.5 pt e/w MEASUREOFMYDREAMS at 25/1, one-fifth the odds six places