Rowleyfile Preview: International Stakes

Should you back horses to do what they have shown they can do before or back them to do something different? It is one of the essential conundrums of betting on horseracing, and there is no easy answer, other than “it depends”.

It depends on whether you are looking for a horse to break a losing streak or to confirm a recent good run, and it depends on a whole lot more besides. If there is nothing essentially different about the circumstances in which the former horse is now running then why should you imagine it will do something different itself, by winning?

Then again, repeating recent circumstances may be all that is needed for an in-form horse to win or go close again now.

My guess is that you need a bit more of the former than the latter where handicaps are concerned, for consistency in such races tends to be punished and inconsistency inadvertently rewarded.

You have got a good few of both types among the 29 runners declared for Saturday’s International Handicap at Ascot, with some of the “in form” types additionally advantaged by a lenient penalty system: winners of a race after June 29^th are penalised by just 3 lb.

In the other camp, you have horses sporting headgear for the first time and running at previously untried trips, either of which could prompt the few lengths required to convert an also-ran into a winner.

I will return to this a bit later, but first let’s look at some of the usual evidence, starting with the possible effect of pace and draw.

The main thing to say here is that there is not an awful lot to be seen. There is only one confirmed front-runner according to Timeform Early Position Figures, in Vale of Kent (drawn 8), but “pressers” are distributed fairly evenly.

There is also not a great deal in the apparent effect of the draw, as judged by average % of rivals beaten for the stall in question and the two stalls on either side for this specific race in the last decade, bar the slightest of slumps in the middle to high stalls.

There is a bit more to be gleaned from other “ten-year trends”, such as the following:

As usual, the % of rivals beaten and place impact value measures (higher better with both) should be the most meaningful, especially the former.   

Five-year-olds come out best as an age-group, as do horses higher up the handicap, those that were placed on their most recent starts but without winning, and horses returning to the track after less than a month off.

Those Betfair SP figures, with stakes varied to return 100 points regardless of the odds, are subject to variance in such a small sample but could certainly encourage the reader to look beyond the obvious and towards those starting at 34 (33/1 in fractional odds) or bigger.

The vast majority of those declared for Saturday’s £150,000 contest tick at least one of the boxes. All 29 fail to tick at least one, also.

However, one who qualifies more than most is Summerghand, a five-year-old, in the top half of the handicap, who finished third last time and is on a 21-day turn-around. In stall 22, he is in that slight dip draw-wise, but I do not think that will be especially important. His trainer, David O’Meara, is going well, on 62.6% of rivals beaten in handicaps since the start of Royal Ascot.

Summerghand has also never run at this trip of 7f, but there have been signs of late that it could suit him. See above regarding backing horses to do what they have not done before.

Indeed, and remarkably, all Summerghand’s 27 lifetime starts have come at 6f, give or take a few yards. Timeform reports have had him “staying on” or “keeping on” in all four this year. That latest one was behind the smart performers Danzeno and Enjazaat at Haydock. Summerghand need only find a length or two of improvement to be right in the mix again here.

Spanish City is not such a good fit on trends, but he will wear blinkers for the first time, and they could also prompt the small amount of improvement required.

That all said, Summerghand is a much bigger price than Spanish City at the time of writing and looks the better value.

This is a race that is better tackled each-way than win only from a mathematical point of view, if not greatly so. That is the suggestion with Summerghand, but stakes should be kept small in what is undoubtedly a difficult race to unravel.

Recommendation: 0.5 pt e/w SUMMERGHAND at 40/1, ¼ the odds first four places