Rowleyfile Preview: International Stakes

I have a feeling that, lost somewhere in the mists of time, the International Handicap at Ascot on Saturday was intended not as a misnomer but as a race which attracted a significant international presence.

Yet the last international runner was in 2009 and the last international winner (the French-trained Crystal Castle) was in 2002. This year, there is one raider from Ireland – the first such since 2009 – and no others from outside Britain.

I am not complaining, merely making an observation. For what it’s worth, it probably makes the task of tackling the race a little easier, though there is not really very much about finding a good bet in a 26-runner handicap which could be described as “easy”.

As is usual with these things, it is worth looking at what the trends tell us about which types of horses have run well, or run badly, in the race over the last decade. These are measured by wins and first-four places, but also by more meaningful impact values (wins and places compared to chance) and % of rivals beaten.

There is nothing especially overwhelming there, though concentrating on four-year-olds and five-year-olds (who between them account for 15 of Saturday’s 26 runners) seems sensible. A higher mark can be considered a more positive indicator than a lower mark, and an absence of more than a month can be considered something of a negative.

Those figures for the draw are much of a muchness on the whole, though a high stall (close to the stand-side rail since 2010) has certainly not been a disadvantage, providing four of the 10 winners and having positive figures across the board.

In such circumstances, the distribution of pace may offset any real or imagined bias in the draw, per se, so it is worth establishing the likely whereabouts of the more prominent racers.

According to Timeform Early Position Figures, Majestic Moon (1.1 EPF) is the horse with the most forward run style, followed by Mutawathea (1.5), Cape Icon (2.0 judged on two runs this term), Flash Fire (2.2) and Whitman (2.2). Those are drawn in stalls 20, 15, 26, 6 and 7 respectively. A decent spread.

There are no major hints with regards to the recent form of any of the trainers, either: nearly all of them fall between 45% and 60% in terms of % of rivals beaten in handicaps since the start of June. That’s neither especially hot nor especially cold.

Of course, what betting should always come down to is value, or a perceived advantage at the odds that are on offer. I price up all races I preview before looking at the actual odds, and two horses stood out on my tissue as being over-priced.

One is Librisa Breeze, who I expected to be favourite at around 6/1 but who can be backed at 9/1 in early exchanges and is not even favourite in a couple of places.

Librisa Breeze nearly landed a 25/1 tip for this column when a heavily-backed runner-up in the Royal Hunt Cup on this course last month (fortunately, we had him each way), for which he has gone up only 3 lb. He looked the winner at one point that day (traded at 1.31 in the run) but a combination of a big mid-race move and a stiff track at a mile found him out.

This is Librisa Breeze’s first attempt at a distance shorter than a mile, and it could even help him in a field like this. As a four-year-old in the top half of the handicap and with a good run to his name last time, he fits a few of those trends to boot.

The other is Withernsea, who I had at 16/1 but who may be backed at 33s. The five-year-old gelding has a trio of creditable runs under his belt, in the most recent of which he got going too late when a fast-finishing third at Newmarket. Withernsea’s sectionals for the last 2f, and especially for the last 1f, suggest he is up to winning at some stage off this mark of 97.

Both horses will need the rub of the green, in a race in which the Clive Cox-trained pair Ice Lord and Cape Icon also make some interest, but their appeal is also enhanced by the offer of attractive place terms by some of the bookmakers.

Early odds had the win book at 130% (you would need to stake a total of £130 proportionally on all the runners to guarantee a return of £100 regardless of the outcome) and the place book at 442%. The latter would be a respectable 110.5% per place with four places but is a most enticing 88% with five places, which is the carrot some bookmakers are dangling.

Value is usually a subjective thing, but the mathematical value of backing each-way rather than win only in this race is real and should at least inform your bet, whatever that bet proves to be.

Recommendations: 1 pt each way LIBRISA BREEZE at 9/1, 0.5 pt each way WITHERNSEA at 33/1, both ¼ the odds five places.