Rowleyfile Preview: Imperial Cup

It has long been the case that some trainers and owners will choose to have runners at Royal Ascot “for the glory of it” when better and more realistic alternatives exist elsewhere, and the same whimsy seems to be a feature of the Cheltenham Festival in the modern era.

It is difficult to explain otherwise how a race like Saturday’s £70,000-added Matchbook-sponsored Imperial Cup Handicap Hurdle at Sandown has attracted just 13 runners – none of them manifestly well in and progressive – when races at Cheltenham next week are heavily oversubscribed.

Something has to win the race, and whatever does will additionally qualify for a bonus if winning at Cheltenham, though that seems unlikely at this stage.

As usual, it is worth having a look at what past runnings of the Imperial Cup tell us about what it has taken to win and run well in the race. The measures used from a 10-year period include “impact values” (wins and places compared to chance, 1.00 being par) and % of rivals beaten (50% is par), with higher being better.

There are few strong “trends”, though readers may want to think twice about siding with a runner well off top-rated by Timeform or showing up after a run in the previous fortnight.

There has been a small if clear advantage in being aged six or under, of running off a low mark, and of having finished first on a horse’s most recent start. That last requirement is fulfilled only by Chieftain’s Choice (one of the veterans in the field) of Saturday’s baker’s dozen, by the way.

That makes this punter feel justified in having a fairly free rein in trying to crack the race, though it is consoling that the two or three I fancy all pass the “age” criterion.

Top-weight Fixe le Kap could easily be a major player, though anyone supporting him at short odds is demonstrating some faith in trainer Nicky Henderson’s ability to deliver him cherry-ripe after a year off the course.

Fixe le Kap was last seen finishing eighth in the Fred Winter at the Cheltenham Festival off a BHA mark 4 lb higher than he will run off here, and a return to testing ground could see him pick up the thread again.

Bottom-weight Not Another Muddle is one for whom the mud should be no inconvenience – he has only ever run on heavy going – and he is arguably the closest “fit” on what trends exist for this race. The concern with him is more his inexperience and tendency to pull/make mistakes. A mark of 120 is likely to look lenient some day, but not necessarily this day.

In the end, I came round to fancying London Prize above all others despite one or two reservations which are comfortably offset by his odds.

The Ian Williams-trained six-year-old strictly has a bit to find on the form shown in four starts over hurdles to date, but there is a decent chance that he would have got involved in a hot handicap hurdle at Musselburgh last time but for falling soon after halfway, and he has finished a good second, despite not getting the run of the race, on the Flat at Newcastle since.

London Prize’s Flat efforts do suggest he will be up to winning off a mark of 128 over hurdles when things drop right for him: they include a comfortable defeat of the useful hurdler Coeur de Lion, an easy Newbury win on good to soft going and some fair earlier efforts on even softer.

It remains possible that London Prize will not shine on soft ground over hurdles, but near-double-figure odds mean the premium for finding out is not particularly large. If he takes to the conditions on Saturday he really should be there or thereabouts.

I was initially going to put up London Prize win only, but the mathematics of the betting encourage an each-way bet. The early win book is at roughly 118% (you would get back £100 for every £118 staked if backing every horse proportionally to their odds) but the early place book, for a quarter the odds the first three places, is approximately 93% per place.

All other things being equal, it is better to back each-way in the Imperial Cup than it is to back for a win. That, if nothing else, is something worth taking away from any pre-race study.

Recommendation: 1 pt each-way (1/4 odds, 1, 2, 3) LONDON PRIZE at 9/1.