Rowleyfile Preview: Hennessy Gold Cup 2016

I start this preview with an admission: I have already backed a horse for the Hennessy Gold Cup at Newbury on Saturday, and, despite its having shortened in price since, I still think it represents value. I will be tipping it regardless of what the trends say.

But those trends are a regular feature of these previews and do at least provide some food for thought. So let us look at what they tell us anyway.

As usual, I have considered the last 10 runnings of the race in question, and measured possible effects by impact values (success compared to chance) and % of rivals beaten, in addition to more conventional methods.

These are some of the findings.

Five-year-olds and six-year-olds have done well, given their smallish representation, but there are none of the former among the 20 declared on Saturday, and only one of the latter, the favourite Native River. Horses aged nine or older have a respectable record despite having provided only one recent winner.

Horses carrying large weights – 11 stone 2 pounds or more – have done notably well, providing seven winners (and an eighth if that threshold is dropped even just a pound). They have won two and a half times as often as could be expected by chance, made the first four more than one and a half times as often as by chance, and beaten 58% of their rivals, where 50% would be par.

Last-time winners, seconds and thirds have over-performed, but that is to be expected, and their figures are actually not all that impressive. Interestingly, there is almost no discernible difference in performance between those who had won a race already in the season and those who had not.

Length of absence, number of previous runs in season under review, and ranking in terms of weight-adjusted Timeform ratings, had either no or little bearing so are not shown.

What does seem probable is that this year’s Hennessy will be run at a strong pace. Contrary to what has been stated in some parts of the media, that is not a given. Six of the last 13 runnings of the race have featured fast finishing speed %s (the speed at the end of the race as a % of the average speed for the race overall), indicating a steadier early pace.

But, with five of the declared having Timeform Early Position Figures synonymous with pace-forcers, plus a handful of others who usually race quite close up, this year’s race does look like turning into a proper stamina test.

One of those habitual pace-forcers is the aforementioned Native River, who certainly has plenty going for him. He did well as a novice chaser last season and made a pleasing return to action in the West Yorkshire Hurdle at Wetherby last month. There is nothing not to like about him, other than, crucially, his price.

Native River’s biggest success last term was gained at Aintree in the Mildmay Novices’ Chase, in which he beat Henri Parry Morgan (now 5 lb better for three lengths), Blaklion (1 lb better for six and three-quarter lengths) and Un Temps Pour Tout (3 lb worse for 13 and three-quarters of a length).

On the face of it, that gives Henri Parry Morgan a fighting chance of reversing placings, but not the other two. However, such cherry-picking and extrapolation is generally the quick way to the poor house in racing analysis. Viewed in the round, it is highly possible that Blaklion is better than he showed that day.

Blaklion had won the Towton Novice Chase in the mud at Wetherby then the RSA Chase on good going at the Cheltenham Festival in the weeks before, both in good times, and ran rather flat at Aintree (though that was admittedly another decent time performance).

Either way, there was a great deal to like about Blaklion’s recent return in the Charlie Hall Chase at Wetherby, where he looked as good as Irish Cavalier, Menorah and (a below-his-best) Cue Card until his seven-month absence caught up with him late on and he faded into fourth.

For my money, that was a better prep for the Hennessy than was Native River’s earlier on the same card, but less was made of it at the time. Blaklion’s more conservative racing style may prove an additional plus given the anticipated pace profile of the Hennessy.  

Blaklion fell on his second start over fences but has been a notably sound jumper since, and he has been remarkably consistent, too, bar, perhaps, that Aintree run. He must be long odds-on to get round, and probably a pretty short price to get involved if he does.

Odds of around 16/1 about Blaklion immediately after Wetherby have been halved since, but against that this year’s Hennessy is not as formidable as it looked likely to be at that time.

There are plenty of runners, but not many progressive ones. Getting a place may not be too difficult, and getting a win is certainly within the realms of possibility.

Place terms mean this is quite a good each-way contest, especially if you can get a bet on which pays more than four places. The recommendation is to have both a win and an each-way bet, with the place part of the latter paying for the win parts if it cops.

Recommendation: 1 pt win and 1 pt each-way (i.e. 2 pts win, 1 pt place) BLAKLION at 8/1.