Rowleyfile Preview: Greatwood Gold Cup

What a difference a year makes. The end of February and beginning of March in 2018 was memorable for “The Beast From The East” and significant snowfall, while 12 months on we have just experienced record-breaking temperatures and shirtsleeve weather.

One casualty of the former was the meeting at Newbury on the first Saturday of March, when the feature was the Greatwood Gold Cup, supported by William Hill. No such problems are anticipated this time round, though it does mean that Ten-Year Trends for the race become Nine-Year Trends on these pages.

Those trends, nonetheless, reveal some interesting messages. The following are the main findings, with % of Rivals Beaten the most significant measure as usual.

Eight of those nine winners were aged eight or under, but eight-year-olds themselves performed modestly when judged by place impact value (factor by which horse placed compared to chance) and %RB.

Horses running off low or high BHA marks outperformed those in between (134 to 144) by a long way.

Perhaps most interestingly, last-time winners had a poor record compared to what could usually be expected, with no wins and just two places from 18 runners. The figures for “Performance at Betfair SP”, in which shorter-priced horses have fared disappointingly compared to market expectation, may be related.

The message is to consider looking beyond the obvious of last-time winners and shorter-priced horses, to mark-up younger horses, and to do the same with horses at the top and the bottom of the weights.

The “qualifiers” in terms of age are Dolos, Azzuri, Dustin des Mottes and Zalvados, though the first-named is a last-time winner and one of the more prominent in the betting.

Azzuri’s last two runs have been pretty abject – he has beaten only three of 13 rivals – whereas Zalvados has the opposite “problem” of being highly consistent – placed on all his four chase starts, running to exactly the same Timeform performance rating of 124 each time – and yet finding himself facing a stiffer task here from out of the handicap.

Dustin des Mottes, however, looks more interesting. A multiple winner in the French Provinces, he came third to Knocknanuss at this course on his British debut then split Azzerti and Gortroe Joe in a close finish at Ascot. Those two rivals both fell on their next starts but won the time after that.

That is not the end of the story with Dustin des Mottes, however. Despite looking very much at Ascot as if he would be suited by a return to a left-handed track, he jumped and ran poorly at Cheltenham last time.

It is difficult to excuse that run, other than to say it was uncharacteristic from what we know of the horse. Sound Investment (2015) and Thomas Crapper (2017) were unplaced and ran nearly as badly immediately prior to their wins in this race, while New Little Bric (2009) and Pacha du Polder (2013) had both been pulled up.

The trip of nearly two and a half miles and going of predominantly “good to soft” should pose Dustin des Mottes no problems, but there are a few concerns on the former and one or two on the latter among his rivals.

Top-weighted Dolos, who is my idea of the marginal favourite, may be at his absolute best at a strongly-run two miles: he should get the strongly-run bit by the look of it.

War Sound, who I was slightly surprised to find actual favourite in the early betting, could well run better than on his last two modest appearances all the same, with the handicapper beginning to relent.

Mercian Prince clocked a useful time at Kempton on his latest appearance, though sectionals reveal that the wideness of his winning margin was in part down to the effects of a strong pace: he has been put up 10 lb as a result.

Given that this is a race in which it can pay to look beyond the obvious, the lightly-weighted six-year-old last-time-unplaced Dustin des Mottes is a tentative selection against more obvious types.

The suggestion would usually be to go each way in a field of 16, in which four places are on offer. But one other finding from the last decade is that no Greatwood Gold Cup field has exceeded 15 runners, and there must be a reasonable chance of at least one defection.

In the circumstances, a small win bet is recommended.

Recommendation: 0.5 pt win DUSTIN DES MOTTES at 14/1