Rowleyfile Preview: Great St Wilfrid Handicap 2016

I learned a lesson about draw and pace analysis, and the effect on both of unexpected non-runners, 12 months ago when previewing the William Hill-sponsored Great St Wilfrid Handicap at Ripon.

A low draw looked likely to be advantageous in a field of 20, but several defections meant that runners got shuffled across to nearer the stand rail and only a small group went to the far side. My selection – Eccleston – “won” the race there but finished fourth overall with only three places being paid in a depleted field.

Such things cannot be foreseen, and are not going to go away while the racing authorities are so permissive about horses being withdrawn for reasons other than necessity. But it is one to bear in mind when tackling the race again this year.

The main reason why a low draw looked appealing a year ago is that horses from low stalls have done well in the race when the field has been large enough for a sizeable group – which includes at least one pace-forcer – to head for the far rail.

With the highest-numbered stall bang against the stand rail, come what may, it requires some data manipulation to get historical figures that apply to the here and now. This is what I came up with for the draw, along with a pace map derived from Timeform’s Early Position Figures.

Historically, the split has tended to be around stalls 10 and 11, regardless of overall field size. Granted a full field, the early pace looks to be spread fairly evenly. There is not a great deal in the draw in terms of impact values (wins and places compared to chance), but the % of rivals beaten figures for low-drawn horses are clearly positive.

It is also worth looking at some trends for the race over the last decade, using those same measures.

Four-year-olds and five-year-olds have better records than older horses, though not by a huge amount. A close-up position last time is a positive, though that is likely to be reflected in the betting to a large degree. And a short turn-round is better than a longer one (given there are no horses this year which have been off for 57 days or more), though plenty fit that bill.

Also (not shown), a BHA mark of 97 to 99 has outperformed other bands to a small degree, though this is complicated by the fact that the level of such marks might have varied over time.  

You could also take encouragement if the horse you fancy is trained by Bryan Smart (62.8% RB in handicaps lately) but not if it is trained by Alan Bailey (30.7%). Most other trainers’ figures are fairly neutral.

Pulling all of these strands together, I priced the race up as usual, also taking into account each horse’s individual form and requirements in a rather more touchy-feely way.

No prizes for me for having Orion’s Bow favourite at 5/1 given he won five on the trot before finishing second in the Stewards’ Cup at Goodwood last time. He will surely go well, though his draw in the No-Man’s Land of stall 9 could have been better. There are some reasonable differences at longer prices, however.

In particular, I like the look of Toofi, who is 14/1 almost across the board in the early betting, and Related, who is bigger than on my tissue at 10/1.

I am a big believer in forgiving a horse one inexplicably poor run – they can happen for a multitude of reasons and yet the market often over-reacts – and Toofi would be a fair bit shorter had he not disappointed in the Stewards’ Cup last time (for which he started joint-fourth-favourite at 12/1). He is back just a fortnight later so presumably had no underlying problem that day.

Before that, he had shaped well in handicaps at York and Royal Ascot (the Wokingham), and he runs in this off his lowest mark since finishing second off 2 lb lower in the Stewards’ Cup in 2015. He joined Robert Cowell at the beginning of this year, and Cowell is a dab hand at getting the best out of sprinters like this. A draw in stall 3 could prove just the ticket for this.

Or, then again, like last year, perhaps it won’t. Related is drawn on the other side in stall 18 and may not have a huge amount of pressure to get to the front there. That is what happened at Goodwood in the consolation Stewards’ Cup last time, when he found only Hoof It too good for him, and he has gone up only 3 lb for that.

The bang-in-form Related should go close, unless there is a draw bias against him, in which case Toofi should benefit on the other side.

Each-way betting may prove appealing if any enterprising bookies go one-quarter the odds five places, but with four on offer at the time of writing a couple of win bets are advised instead.

Recommendations: 1 pt win TOOFI at 14/1, 1 pt win RELATED at 10/1