Rowleyfile Preview: Grand National Trial 2018

False starts and chaos on the course at the Grand National seem to have been replaced by cock-ups in the mid-February unveiling of the weights these days.

This week’s Grand National Weights Launch ended up taking place in a hotel across the road as the original venue suffered a power outage which left outgoing BHA Head of Handicapping Phil Smith groping around in the dark. I will leave it to the reader to insert the obvious jokes here.

That the weights for the big race have been finalised means that good efforts by National contenders go unpenalised from here, such as in Saturday’s Betfred-sponsored Grand National Trial at Haydock.

Haydock is not much like the Grand National course at Aintree, but, then, nowhere is. The race will at least be run over a marathon trip, of 3m 4f and 97 yards (plus or minus whatever the course decides is justified nearer the time). The ground is forecast to be heavy, and heavy at Haydock recently has been HEAVY.

We have plenty of history to fall back on with a race which, according to Wikipedia, has existed on and off since 1947, though with only nine runners having been declared this year there are other obvious “ins” to tackling the puzzle.

Nonetheless, the following are the headline “trends” from the race over the last decade.

Eight-year-olds and nine-year-olds have a better record than other ages, last-time winners have a particularly good record (the sample size for last-time fallers is too small from which to judge), a long absence has been a negative, and plenty of runs – including at least one win – in the current season has been a positive.

Another thing to consider is that this looks like being well-run despite the small field: Yala Enki and Three Faces West are confirmed front runners, and Wild West Wind should not be far behind. There is nothing of note to report from a consideration of trainer form.

Blaklion is a worthy favourite, though he has to concede 13 lb and more to his rivals. He is a high-class performer who stays three and a half miles (not definitely the four and a quarter of the Grand National itself) and who runs his race pretty much every time. He was clear of the remainder when second to Vieux Lion Rouge in this 12 months ago, admittedly off a mark 9 lb less than now.

He comes here from winning the Becher Chase at Aintree emphatically, and his absence since early-December was presumably very much with those Grand National weights in mind. History still says that he will have to run to a Timeform rating of at least 168 to win this race, good enough to have won the Cheltenham Gold Cup as often as not in recent years.

The Dutchman has suffered even more at the hands of the handicapper and now goes off fully 13 lb higher than when winning the Peter Marsh Chase on this course last month by 13 lengths. I have him only fourth best in at 13/2, as opposed to the 5/1 second favourite he is with the books.

As stated previously, that – arriving at a price you think a horse should be and comparing that with the odds on offer – is ultimately all that matters. Trends, form, draw analysis, sectionals, and whatever else floats your boat, should only feed into that process.

My conclusions on that score are that three of the nine horses in Saturday’s race are significantly under-priced, four are “about right” and two represent value. Those two are Wild West Wind and Daklondike.

Both horses retain a “p” on their Timeform rating, which is by no means common in races for established staying chasers, and Wild West Wind has managed to win three of just five starts over larger obstacles to date.

He was bowling along in the lead when falling 10 furlongs from home in the Welsh Grand National at Chepstow last time, and the horse he had beaten readily on the same course the time before – Alfie Spinner – went on to finish second.

The concern is that he may, as an exuberant type, do too much too soon at this marathon trip with other pace-forcers in the field, but the odds make it worth it. He is the least exposed runner in the field.

Daklondike is the youngest runner – which isn’t necessarily a good thing – and has won three of his last four starts, looking as if a distance in excess of three and a quarter miles will suit him when staying on to beat next-time winner Grand Vision at Newbury at the end of December. That performance was backed up by a good Timeform timefigure.

There is something appealing about siding with one with strong claims who races up with the pace as well as another who could pick up the pieces if the early pace proves too strong, and the betting makes taking these two against the field a realistic proposition.

Recommendation: 1 pt win WILD WEST WIND at 7/1, 1 pt win DAKLONDIKE at 9/1