Rowleyfile Preview: Grand National

There are few “good things” in life, let alone in the Randox Health-sponsored Grand National, due off at 17:15 on Saturday.

But what seems a near-certainty, where the great race this year is concerned, is that you will be better off backing your fancy at early odds than at starting price, that the scandalous shortening of odds near the off will be swept under the carpet again by those in charge, that it will be worth shopping around for enhanced place terms if backing each way, and that the proliferation of Gigginstown-owned runners (down to seven at the last count) will confuse hardened racegoers and newbies alike.

One of those sporting the Gigginstown purple and white is last year’s winner Tiger Roll, who could go off at one of the shortest prices in the history of the race on the back of a near-perfect preparation. His win last time over cross country fences at the Cheltenham Festival was electric. He will surely go well.

However, he has to give weight to all but two of his 39 rivals, a few of whom look potentially at least as well treated as he does, and then there is the small matter of 30 fences and in excess of four miles to navigate.

With a race that has the history and continuity of this one, it is worth having a look at what the trends from the last 10 years tell us. The following are among the more pertinent findings.

For newcomers to these previews, as an example, there have been 88 horses under the age of nine, of which three won (1.35 times what might be expected by chance) and nine made the first four (1.01 times chance), and collectively they have accounted for 52.5% of their rivals (where 50% would be par). Those “place impact value” and “% of rivals beaten” figures tend to be the most meaningful.

It can be seen that younger horses have fared marginally best, that horses carrying 10 stone 11 lb to 11 stone 0 lb inclusive have the best record, that having more than three weeks off since the horse’s most recent run may be viewed as a positive, as can finishing between second and sixth in that run, and that horses in the mid-range of the betting market (between 33/1 and 66/1 on Betfair Exchange) have slightly outperformed expectation when stakes are varied according to those odds.

Unfortunately, none of that makes solving the Grand National especially easy!

Ultimately, it comes down to taking all of those – sometimes contradictory – pieces of information into account, along with others to do with form and suitability to the test in hand, and trying to assign probabilities to each of the runners in turn. A bet is a bet when you think a horse has a superior chance to the one implied by its odds.

Having completed this marathon undertaking, I think one horse above others is worth a bet, while acknowledging that the Grand National confounds expectations far more often than it confirms them.

That horse is Ramses de Teillee, who is the youngest runner – the only seven-year-old on show – but who has built up an impressive CV, including in races nearly as tough as this one.

He won the Welsh Grand National Trial at Chepstow before coming second in the Welsh Grand National itself and the Haydock Trial for this race, possibly a shade unlucky in the last-named in that he was in front a long way out only to get collared close home.

Despite that, Ramses de Teillee is a doughty stayer, who copes well with testing ground and should deal with the still longer trip. He is the only horse in Saturday’s field with the famed Timeform “p” on his rating, indicating the likelihood of still further improvement.

If this were a staying chase over conventional fences, then the David Pipe-trained grey would surely be at shorter odds. But the bookies have run scared of Tiger Roll (with some justification) and are wary of others who may, shall we say, have had their lights hidden under bushels in recent times. 

There are no ifs and buts about the selection, other than about how he will take to a course that is unique but which is (mercifully) far less fearsome than it once was. You get inflated odds as a result.

The way to bet is each way, especially if you secure terms better than the conventional “a-quarter the win odds, first four places” (and you can).

In addition to Ramses de Teillee and Tiger Roll, I can see Anibale Fly – fourth last year and even better now judged on his second in the recent Cheltenham Gold Cup – and the well-treated pair Jury Duty and Up For Review performing well.    

Recommendation: 0.5 pt e/w RAMSES DE TEILLEE @25/1, 1/5 odds six places

First-five prediction:

1. Ramses de Teillee

2. Tiger Roll

3. Anibale Fly

4. Jury Duty

5. Up For Review