Rowleyfile Preview: Grand Annual

It has to be hoped that you don’t get to the Johnny Henderson Grand Annual Handicap Chase at Cheltenham on Friday needing a winner, for, as “getting out” stakes go, it has never been easy and this year seems exceptionally hard.

A suspicious mind might think that nearly half the field has been laid out with this race in mind. At the least, it is difficult to tell which of those who have become feasibly handicapped have lost their way and which can be expected to make a sudden return to form in the Festival’s finale.

Tread carefully, in other words, but there are a few factors that may help identify a value bet. Usually, this might involve trends, but there is little to be seen in the usual ones, other than a couple of counter-intuitive findings.

Age has made little difference in the last decade, and neither has BHA mark or weight carried, number of runs and wins in season and length of absence (those last few not shown). What does emerge is that last-time winners and (look away now, Halifax) horses with good chances on Timeform adjusted ratings have fared poorly. They usually fare well, of course!

To be fair, that is what you might expect of a race in which recent form often gets trumped by unforeseen “back to form”. The figures support the premise anyway.

Another interesting angle is the performance of Irish-trained horses over the years. They have done quite well, winning more than twice as often and placing one and a half times as often as could be expected by chance, though the superior Rivals Beaten measure is less exceptional at 54.6%.

Nonetheless, if you fancy an Irish-trained horse – and six have been declared – then you are entitled to take some heart from those figures.

Then there is the likely pace angle, which serves up a beauty in this instance. Almost half the field habitually race up with the gallop, as identified by Timeform’s Early Position Figures, and the pace forecast is the rarely seen “extreme”.    

Some jockeys will ride more conservatively, but some will not, and there seems to be an increased chance of something coming late to pick up the pieces, at least for place punters.

Having considered all of the above, I came down cautiously on the side of a couple for support each way, both of them hold-up horses.

Firstly, Bouvreuil is perfectly capable of useful form and hinted that a return to it may not be far away in two unplaced efforts before Christmas. He usually runs at around two and a half miles but has the pace to cope with a return to the minimum, especially given that he will probably be dropped out in middle to rear until late in the piece.

He acts on soft going (probably on heavy) and is creeping down the weights: he finished third in the Plate Handicap at last year’s Festival off 3 lb higher.

The main problem with Bouvreuil is that, to put it politely, he tends to look a reluctant hero: he last won in January, 2016. It is the Chinese Year of The Dog, however.

Secondly, there is Vaniteux, a horse who would have been placed behind Douvan in a notably strong Arkle Chase two years ago but for unseating two out. Things have not worked out as well as might have been hoped since, and he has won only two more chases, being switched from Nicky Henderson to David Pipe before this season. But he has shown distinct signs of working his way back to form of late at the same time as his handicap mark has been falling.

It is less than 12 months since Vaniteux won comfortably off a mark 2 higher than he runs off here, and he was a considerately-handled second to Politologue at Kempton last time (ahead of one of the top weights here, Forest Bihan). It is not difficult to see him going well.

A further reason to favour an each-way play over win only is the arithmetic involved. The win book comes in at about 124% at the time of writing (you could guarantee a return of £100 come what may only by staking £124 in proportion to the horses’ odds) but the place book is 105%, assuming one quarter the odds and four places.

It is better to back each way than win only, all things being equal, though neither has a positive expectation.

Recommendations: 0.5 pt each way BOUVREUIL at 20/1 and 0.5 pt each way VANITEUX at 12/1, both ¼ win odds first 4 places

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