Rowleyfile Preview: Epsom Dash

Horseracing has its own equivalent of Extreme Sports at Epsom on Saturday. That is not a reference to The Derby in this instance, for all that is a unique contest on a pretty extreme course, but the Investec ‘Dash’ a bit earlier on the card.

“Extreme” is the pace prediction on Timeform for the Hell-for-leather charge down the fastest five furlongs in the world, and it is easy to see why. No less than six (seven if you also include Stake Acclaim, who has run only once recently) of the 20 declared runners have consolidated Timeform Early Position Figures of less than 2.0, denoting pace-forcers or out-and-out front-runners.

They include Caspian Prince and Ornate, who are capable of leading top-notch sprinters on their day. Caspian Prince – a son of Dylan Thomas and a Rainbow Quest mare, so one imagines regular attempts on the Equine World Land-Speed Record were not initially the plan – won this race in 2014, 2016 and 2017, and was unplaced in 2015 and last year.

This is how the draw and the pace pans out in the Dash, after a bit of recoding of the former for the fact that the highest stall is always by the stand rail and the precise positioning of the lowest stall(s) therefore relies on the size of the field. Draw is measured by % of rivals beaten for the stall in question and the stalls on either side.

The most eye-catching finding is that horses drawn in 1 or 2 have a remarkably good record when there is a 19- or 20-runner field. Caspian Prince came from stall 1 of 19 (effectively 2 in a 20-runner field) in 2017, Desert Law won from stall 1 of 20 in 2015 and Stone of Folca did the same from 2 of 20 in 2012.

Being drawn on, or very nearly on, the wide outside seems to be an advantage in a race in which the runners usually crowd near to the stand rail. But that advantage soon becomes a disadvantage a bit further in (see the record of stalls 5 to 9).

A high stall has not been the necessity some (including jockeys) seem to imagine it is on the straight course at Epsom, but there are good returns from stalls 17 to 19 also.   

There is pace all over the shop, but anything coming from behind must come through traffic. You can visualise some races with confidence beforehand, but not this one, other than that no prisoners will be taken early doors.

There are also some more conventional “trends” to consider, though they are mostly less dominant than the above.

Age is no obvious barrier, of which more anon, higher marks have done better than lower ones, if not to a massive degree, a prominent showing last time (especially a win) can be considered a plus, and those performances at Betfair SP (with stakes varied to return 100 points) might put you off the front end of the market.

Hathiq is top on Timeform weight-adjusted ratings after clear-cut wins at Tipperary and the Curragh, and I would not quibble with that one bit. But he is favourite, and quite a short-priced favourite at that, and that encourages me to look elsewhere, especially as two others with solid chances on the figures may be backed at much bigger prices.

Recon Mission is the sole three-year-old in the field, but the trends (looked at properly) do not discourage on that score from what is a very small sample.

Of more relevance here and now, perhaps, is that three-year-olds have been doing better than usual in open handicaps this season, registering several wins and accounting for 53% of their rivals of all ages, while older horses have managed 49%. That is a small difference, but things are usually the other way around until a month or more from now.

Recon Mission has run two good races against his own age-group this year: at Sandown, where he did a bit too much up front before finishing a close fourth; and at Chester, where he took longer to get going but nearly caught Leodis Dream late on. The former effort was backed up by a useful timefigure as well as those fast early sectionals.

Harome is beginning to look like a winner in waiting, despite six consecutive unplaced runs since scooting up at York last summer off just 3 lb lower than he goes off here.

On his latest start he finished sixth from stall 1 at York, with everything ahead of him coming from stall 14 or higher (including a rejuvenated Duke of Firenze, who will attempt on Saturday to repeat his win in this race from 2013). Harome is all speed, and this test could suit him very well.

This is a good each-way race for punters, with four places on offer (and more with one or two bookmakers). The win book at best early prices is around 125%, but the per-place book is only 102%, offering better value.

The recommendation is to back Recon Mission and Harome each way, but to keep stakes small. This is the kind of race in which almost anything could happen.

Recommendations: 0.5 pt e/w RECON MISSION at 20/1, 0.5 pt e/w HAROME at 25/1