Rowleyfile Preview: Epsom Dash

Given that Epsom can claim to have the fastest 5f track in the world – one which drops 93 feet from start to finish according to Google Earth – it is perhaps surprising that a Group race or two is not run there in an attempt to lower the record further.

The best chance usually comes on Derby Day in the ‘Dash’ Handicap, in which Stone of Folca set a world best (according to the Guinness Book of Records) of 53.69s in 2012.

Easy ground means that such a mark is unlikely to be in much danger for this year’s contest, but speed and an ability to handle the contours will still be very much at a premium. The field of 20 includes the last three to have won the race: Duke of Firenze, 2013; Caspian Prince, 2014; and Desert Law, 2015.

Duke of Firenze’s 2013 win came the last time the ground was like this for the contest, and he benefited from a pace burnout to prevail from stall 19 of 20. He gets stall 20 this time and carries just a 4 lb penalty for a clear-cut victory at York last time.

Another cut-throat contest could be on the cards, with several of the runners identified as pace-forcers by Timeform’s Early Position Figures, and Duke of Firenze is likely to go well again. However, that draw snippet may be misleading: the runner-up to Duke of Firenze in 2013 came from stall 1, as did Desert Law last year.

It is worth looking in more detail at the figures for the draw, as well as at some other “trends”, in the race over the last decade.

While a high draw (especially a very high draw) has been advantageous overall, the lowest stalls in a big field have performed close to par. Horses in the middle and middle-to-low stalls have come off worst.

Horses over six years of age – of which there are eight in Saturday’s field (including Duke of Firenze at seven) – have fared worst by both place Impact Value and % of Rivals Beaten, though not by a large amount.

A prominent showing on the horse’s most recent start can be considered a plus, as can a higher weight (weight is used instead of BHA marks, the level of which can fluctuate erratically) and an absence of between four and eight weeks.

A case can be made for Maljaa more than most on those measures, though his mid-to-low draw somewhat offsets his high weight, prominent last-time run and 31-day turn-around.

A similar remark applies to Roudee, who went plenty fast up front from an inside stall when second to Kimberella at Chester last time, though the four-year-old had been outpaced early at this course and distance the time before.

That Chester race is well worth another viewing if you get the chance. Kimberella, who has run creditably twice since and lines up again here, got a near-ideal stalking trip. While Roudee saw off the other pace-forcer (and a rival again on Saturday) in Blithe Spirit. But it is the performance of fifth-placed Mukaynis which really caught the eye.

The Kevin Ryan-trained gelding tanked along in mid-division following a slightly tardy start but got no sort of run for much of the closing stages and yet still performed respectably. He might even have won with luck in running and meets Kimberella and Roudee on better terms.

Mukaynis has been an improved and invigorated performer since being refitted with blinkers on his last three starts, and the speed he has shown in those runs additionally suggests he may be best these days at five furlongs, a distance at which he has had little racing in his career.

He could be nearer last than first early on in this, and is going to need to get the breaks in a big field this time, but that also applies to Duke of Firenze, and Mukaynis has been put up at 20/1 in a place against that one’s 7/1. It is not difficult to see both of them picking up the pieces late in the day.

Early prices have a win book of 127% (you would need to stake a total of £127 proportionately to each horse’s odds to guarantee a return of £100 whatever the result) but 104% per-place for four places.

In mathematical terms, an each-way bet is a better proposition than a win-only bet, if not by a great deal. If any bookmaker offers first-five places and reasonable odds, then that would tilt things even more in the each-way punter’s favour.

So, Mukaynis is the recommendation at what looks an inflated price for a horse with his profile. What we need now is a bit of luck along the way!

Recommendation:

1 pt each-way MUKAYNIS