Rowleyfile Preview: Ebor

In order to perform so-called “trends analysis”, you need to feel confident that the race under consideration resembles past editions to a substantial degree. The Sky Bet-sponsored Ebor, with its long history as one of the premier handicaps in the Racing Calendar, might be imagined to fit the bill. Or maybe not.

This year’s contest, due off at 3:40 at York on Saturday, is the first million-pound handicap in Europe, and the injection of extra prize money has changed at least one important aspect of the race. Whereas median BHA marks of participants varied between 98 and 105 in the previous 10 years, it has shot up to 109 this time around, with no horse set to run off less than 104.

If the intention is to create a British equivalent of the Melbourne Cup, then it is only a few top horses and some foreign raiders off going close.

Performance by BHA mark has been deleted from the following analysis as a result, and it may be wondered how relevant the other categories will prove to be. As it is, there are not really any especially strong trends in any case, judged on Ebor’s in the past decade.

Perhaps the most interesting finding is that the draw has marginally favoured those in wide stalls in what has been a 20-runner maximum in recent years but will now be 24.

There is a 1000-yard run to the first bend in this approximately 14f race, so plenty of time for the runners to sort themselves out. But those in lower stalls may suffer slightly from being asked to go too fast to adopt a prominent position or from being crowded by those coming across from the outside.

Those age-group stats – that older horses have been slightly disadvantaged as judged by % of rivals beaten – do not add much given that only three of the 24 declared are older than six.

While horses with good chances on Timeform ratings have performed quite well, those Betfair SP figures (with stakes varied in proportion to each horse’s odds to return 100 points) may encourage the reader to take a swing at something at a bigger price.

Not me, though, or not in this instance. There are two runners above all others who appeal, and, while not favourites, they are fairly prominent in the betting.

They both contested the same handicap at Royal Ascot, too. Baghdad won the Duke of Edinburgh Stakes as a well-backed favourite, and Ben Vrackie finished second. For different reasons they look interesting for this despite having been beaten since.

Baghdad has not yet tried this longer trip but shapes very much as if it will suit him. He has been at his best when getting a good gallop at a mile and a half – such as at Royal Ascot both this year and last – and a couple of respectable defeats in tactical small-field Group races recently can be upgraded as a result.

Baghdad is a tough ‘un even by Mark Johnston standards, having reportedly broken a leg when winning first time at Royal Ascot, after which he was sidelined for 10 months, only to return better than ever. He should run well, and he may run very well.

Ben Vrackie is more difficult to weigh up, but he is a very talented colt who looked slightly unlucky to be beaten at Royal Ascot (sectionals certainly suggest so), finishing with a wet sail but failing to get there in time by just a short head.

Ben Vrackie went off a short-priced favourite in a hot handicap at Newmarket next time but ran no sort of a race and has not been seen since. The Timeform handicappers have kept the faith with him, and so will I, though his tendency to get behind and his rather hit-and-miss style makes him a different type to Baghdad, with whom he shares a sire in Frankel.

Usually, any recommendation would be an each-way one in a race of this nature, with the arithmetic favourable for such an approach. But Ben Vrackie comes here off a poor run while Baghdad is trying a trip he has not tried before, for all that it can be expected to help him. It is better to do or die, I think.

They are drawn in stalls 22 (Ben Vrackie) and 18 (Baghdad), but, as we have seen, that may not prove a problem whatsoever.

Recommendations:

1 pt win BAGHDAD at 14/1 

1 pt win BEN VRACKIE at 10/1