Rowleyfile Preview: Duke of Edinburgh Handicap 2016

Compared to some of the puzzles these previews have faced at Royal Ascot this week, The Duke of Edinburgh Handicap on Friday might be categorised as of “medium” difficulty, as opposed to the customary “hard” on the Sudoku scale. There should be a mere 19 runners, once reserves come out, and bookmakers are betting 6/1 the field instead of longer.

The race also has similarities with Thursday’s King George V Handicap (result unknown at time of writing), so that some of the preparation done for that applies to this also.

For instance, there has been a bias in favour of higher-drawn stalls over lower-drawn stalls in big fields at a mile and a half (probably because the latter group get crowded out early) which has been more pronounced when the ground has been softer.

Those details, along with some other important trends from the last 10 years, are as follows.

Other interesting findings are that four-year-olds have the best record by age-group, though they have also had the largest representation; that last-time winners have fared best, if by no more than might usually be anticipated; and that short and long absences have probably been a negative. 

We can also expect there to be a good pace, which, combined with softish going and a fairly stiff finish, promises to work in the favour of the two horses I fancy at the available odds. Quarterback, Hamelin, John Reel and Notarised all tend to get on with things.

First off, it is possible to back at double-figure odds a very smart hurdler who trotted up off top weight at the Aintree Grand National Meeting and is potentially well-in on the Flat after just a handful of starts in this sphere much earlier in his career.

Ivan Grozny would be hard to beat in this if he transferred his hurdling form. That does not always happen, of course, but we don’t have to look back very far this week to one occasion when it did with Jennies Jewel.

Ivan Grozny seems best with give in the ground and when being played late in a big field – something which made him look not far off Champion Hurdle calibre at Aintree – and he could well get a good set-up here. At the odds, it is worth risking, anyway.

Secondly, Kinema looks by some way the best of those drawn very high in this field, and a quick check of the video for the gelding’s recent win at Good wood, on what was his first start for Ralph Beckett, should convince the reader that this is one for whom a 4 lb rise in the handicap may well not be enough.

What may not be quite so obvious is that Kinema, who travelled like a dream that day, showed abundant speed when it mattered. He got a big sectional mark-up for doing what he did in a steadily-run race and could be rated a good few lengths more superior to Monotype and Notarised (who reopposes here) than the bare result.

That is important when considering the gelding’s chances on a return to a mile and a half. Goodwood (a mile and three quarters) proved he is not slow by any means.

Cases can be made for the others, of course, not least First Sitting and Rare Rhythm, the latter arguably the closest thing there is to a “trends” horse on display. But both selections can be backed at 12/1 early doors, and that is perfectly sufficient.

The race has a good profile for each-way bettors, with early prices indicating a 123% win book but a 102% per-place book (four places). That looks to be the way to go with Kinema, who is a solid proposition, but Ivan Grozny is more likely to be all-or-nothing so is recommended win only.

Recommendations: 1 pt each way KINEMA (1/4 odds first 4 places), 1 pt win IVAN GROZNY