Rowleyfile Preview: Crabbie’s Grand National 2016

Anyone looking for a traditional Rowleyfile Preview may want to skip to the end at this point. Although the intention is to advise the reader of a good bet – and hopefully a winner, of which there have mercifully been more than a few of late – the means of arriving at it will be different.

These previews usually look at trends over a 10-year period, or similar. But, where the Grand National is concerned, you are immediately faced with the fact that the essential characteristics of the race have changed since they modified the fences before the 2013 edition.

Even before then, there were not many nuggets regarding age, last-time position, handicap mark (which has been affected by the inflation in BHA ratings) or any of the several other measures usually employed on these pages.

Before 2013, there used to be more fallers than finishers; since then, it has switched markedly the other way. The race is now more about stamina and ability and less about jumping prowess and pure chance. That seems a good thing.

Softer ground – as seems almost certain this year – has tended to increase the numbers of pulled-ups but not the numbers of fallers and unseateds. The cream is still likely to rise to the top, providing the cream avoids bad fortune along the way, so to speak.

I have a fancy for this year’s Grand National which I recommended about a month ago, and I see no reason to switch horses now. The horse in question has all the ability, and probably all the jumping prowess and stamina, required to play a major part. I just hope he has the luck!

So, instead of running through those fairly unhelpful trends and then tipping the same horse regardless, I thought I would attempt a simulation of what might unfold.

This is based on data from the % of fallers and pulled-ups at each obstacle since the changes, the likely effect of softer ground on that, the horses’ individual jumping records, their Timeform Early Position Figures, and, of course, their Timeform ratings and commentaries.

Instead of one preview, you get 40 separate predictions of what will happen to the horse you do or do not fancy!

Some of those forecasts are more likely to happen than others. That there will be fewer finishers than the average 18 in recent years seems likely, and that the majority of non-completers will be pulled up in the stamina-sapping conditions, rather than fall or similar, also seems likely.

Who will be left standing at the end is far more difficult to tell, but last year’s winner Many Clouds is a good deal more likely to make it than most. He may, however, prove vulnerable to better-handicapped horses at the business end.

There is no better-handicapped horse in the race than The Last Samuri, who looked every inch a Grand National type when winning off this mark at Doncaster in March in a good time. It was only really in the closing stages that he took off that day, and the extra mile or so should play to this sound-jumper’s strengths.

The Irish-trained pair Morning Assembly and Gallant Oscar have been shaping well recently and could easily get involved, but The Last Samuri looks the best proposition of all by some way.

How to side with him is not quite the straightforward matter it might usually be. Another, depressing, likelihood is that the on-course bookmakers will crush the price of the majority of runners near the off (and that the SPRC will sit on their hands about it).

Do not bet at starting price, and if you bet at all then there is a strong incentive to bet each-way. This is not the “mug” activity some imagine, for off-course bookmakers are falling over themselves to accommodate you.

First five places, and in some cases even first six places (though usually at lesser odds), mean that it is mathematically better to back each-way than win only. For instance, one of the biggest bookmakers is betting 133% in the win market but just 93% per place in the place market.

Take the hint and take an early price, each-way. Whatever your selection, best of luck and here’s hoping that this year’s Grand National is remembered for all the right reasons.

Recommendation

1 pt each-way THE LAST SAMURI at 10/1 (1/4 the odds first 5 places).