Rowleyfile Preview: Classic Chase

This week’s trends-based big-handicap preview starts with some trivia. Warwick – which is Saturday’s venue for the preview – has the shortest distance between five consecutive fences of any British racecourse. There are 503 yards covering the first and the last fences in the penultimate straight on the West Midlands track.

I know this because I measured them all back in 2013/2014, not, as might be imagined, with a trusty trundle wheel, but with Google Earth.

Some courses have individual fences which are closer together – Sandown (the last two Railway Fences) and Cartmel (Graveyard Fences) come in at just 88 yards in separation – but none over quite so many obstacles.

This is not of purely academic interest, hopefully. Warwick may be unremarkable in some respects, but it does test jumping in a unique manner. Meet one or two wrong at that stage of a race and there could well be insufficient time left in which to retrieve the situation thereafter.

That rat-a-tat-tat of successive fences will be jumped twice in the McCoy Contractors Civil Engineering Classic Handicap Chase at 3:00 on Saturday, and 22 fences in all will have to be negotiated over in excess of three miles and five furlongs. Jumping is the name of the game, and so is staying in this instance.

There are other evidence-based factors to consider, of course. Including some of those “trends”, the main ones from the last 10 editions (there were no races in 2009 and 2010) being as follows:

As usual, “Place Impact Value” and “% of Rivals Beaten” are the most significant measures. They suggest that eight-year-olds (possibly nine-year-olds) on mid-ranging handicap marks, with a good chance on weight-adjusted Timeform ratings, relatively few starts in the current season, and something other than a prominent finishing position last time can be viewed positively.

Nothing fits all of those criteria, but several of the runners fit some.

In particular, I like the look of two nine-year-olds who happen to have run “poorly” last time but are fancied to bounce back here.

“Ran poorly” would be a harsh description of both Step Back’s and Duel At Dawn’s reappearances, for all that each of them finished only seventh. Both gave the impression that they will be all the better for the runs, and a much more prominent showing is anticipated here.

Step Back is better judged on his easy success in the prestigious bet365 Chase at Sandown in April, when he won by 13 lengths and 14, though he has gone up a stone in the handicap as a result. That reappearance saw him show up well for a long way at Chepstow, though he did jump to his right without the cheekpieces with which he is re-equipped here.

Ground (forecast to be just on the soft side of “good”) and trip look just about ideal.

Duel At Dawn has not one, but two, efforts to be excused, starting with a pulled-up one in the National Hunt Chase at the Cheltenham Festival, where his jumping uncharacteristically failed to hold up in a sizeable field.

Of less concern was that reappearance at Haydock just before Christmas, when he showed up for a long way. Like Step Back, Duel At Dawn has cheepieces back on now, and the likelihood is that’s in his favour.

Further back in his career, Duel At Dawn put together a string of good efforts, over hurdles then fences, including a listed-race second to Ms Parfois on this course which makes him look quite well-treated.

I initially fancied Duel At Dawn quite a lot, but someone went and nicked all the really big prices about him shortly before declaration time. He still looks value, if not as much as he was.

One thing which seems likely is that this year’s Classic Chase will be run at a strong pace. No less than six of the declared 13 have Timeform EPFs of 2.2 or less, indicating a habitual prominent or pace-forcing run-style, including last year’s all-the-way winner Milansbar.

In terms of betting approach, this is not an especially attractive each-way contest. At the time of writing, the win book comes in at about 115%, while the place book (assuming one quarter the win odds and three places) is at 118%.

Two win bets make at least as much sense as one each-way bet for the same total stake, mathematically. And two win bets – on Step Back and Duel At Dawn – are what is recommended.

Recommendations: 1 pt win STEP BACK at 8/1, 1 pt win DUEL AT DAWN at 7/1