Rowleyfile Preview: Chester Cup

We all know that an inside draw is an advantage on Chester’s turning left-handed track, yes? But do we all know to what degree that applies in a race at as long a distance as the extended two and a quarter miles of the Sportpesa-sponsored Chester Cup Handicap, highlight of Friday’s meeting there?

I did not, or did not precisely, so I crunched the numbers and the results were telling. The average cumulative margin beaten for horses drawn in stalls 1 to 4 in the last nine runnings (no stalls were used in 2012), after recoding for non-runners, was 8.8 lengths: that for stalls 5 to 8 was 15.8 lengths; for 9 to 12 was 13.8 lengths; and for stalls 13 and over was again 15.8 lengths.

A five-to-seven length advantage is substantial, though it should be pointed out that you would expect the differences to be more nuanced if sufficient data existed to come up with figures for each stall and not just buckets of four or five. For instance, stall 5 is unlikely to be seven lengths worse than stall 4 but more like one or two.

The draw is just one element of what should be considered when tackling one of the Flat season’s iconic races. Before moving onto more form-based considerations, these are some of the key trends from the last decade, starting with those draw figures expressed in another form.

A good chance on Timeform weight-adjusted ratings is almost as big a positive as a low draw (the two may not be entirely unrelated!). Four-year-olds have outperformed other age-groups, if not by a huge amount. Ditto with the narrow mid-weight range, while horses which finished fourth to sixth on their most recent starts have fared particularly poorly.

The performance of horses bucketed by Betfair Starting Price (with stakes proportional to those horses’ odds) shows no bias to shorter-priced, mid-priced or longer-priced horses over the 10-year period.

You have to feel for the connections of Low Sun (drawn in stall 17) and Making Miracles (16) in particular: their best bet may be to hope that there are sufficient non-runners to ensure their horses get shuffled across to something a bit less disadvantageous.

The connections of Cleonte (1), Cliffs of Dooneen (2), Mirsaale (3) and Fun Mac (4) are entitled to feel happier.

As should the connections of Austrian School, drawn in 5 but the likeliest in the whole field to go forward. He has a Timeform consolidated EPF of 1.8 and only the poorly drawn Making Miracles otherwise has one under 2.4. 

Austrian School could well be able to overcome the minor disadvantage of stall 5 to lead or nearly lead without expending over-much energy, and he has plenty else in his favour, too.

He is one of just four four-year-olds in the field, won last time and is highly-rated by Timeform. It was not just any old win last time, either. He fair scooted up by six lengths in a strong race at Musselburgh, running a useful time, for which he gets, ummm, a 3 lb penalty.

If the handicapper had his chance again, he would make that 8 lb. Austrian School is four to five lengths “well in” on official figures.

What of the ground? Austrian School won on “heavy” as a two-year-old. The track? Austrian School won here 12 months ago. If there are chinks in the colt’s armour then I could not find them.

The downside is that not many others could find them, either. Austrian School is either favourite or second-favourite (to Cleonte) in the early betting, but he could easily be shorter than he is given his claims.

Cleonte has a fair bit going for him, also, including a good chance on Timeform ratings and a mark that would be 4 higher had his latest run been taken into consideration. That saw Cleonte finish well into third to Dee Ex Bee in the Sagaro Stakes at Ascot last week.

His timefigure that day was a fairly ordinary 95, in what may be a muddling race, but he ran a 103 when third in the Cesarewitch at Newmarket last back-end and also has form in the mud.

Cleonte is likely to be further back early on than Austrian School, however, or at least an EPF of 4.6 suggests so. If the pace up front is strong then that could work out well, but it probably won’t be (predicted to be “even” by Timeform) and there could be a load of bumper-to-bumper traffic to get through as a result.

With 17 runners declared, this should be a good race for anyone looking for an each-way bet. But there must be a threat of non-runners, with recent weather providing an excuse for connections of higher-drawn horses, and that would reduce the appeal considerably.

The recommendation is to side with Austrian School, who has a lot going for him, and to do so on the nose this time.

Recommendation: 1 pt win AUSTRIAN SCHOOL at 5/1