Rowleyfile Preview: Challenge Cup Handicap

If you mention the words “Challenge Cup” to British sports fans then they are likely – at least in the more enlightened parts of the country – to think of Rugby League’s showcase occasion, a kind of FA Cup but one which the game’s fans and participants actually care deeply about.

There is, however, also a horseracing event of that name, and its latest running will take place at Ascot on Saturday to rather less hullabaloo.

I have to admit that I struggle to think of it as anything other than “That Valuable 7f Handicap at Ascot in October”, but it has £180,000 in added prize money and is certainly worth winning. The last two horses to succeed in it were Librisa Breeze and Accidental Agent, who both went onto Group 1 success.

Whether or not it is worth having a bet in remains to be seen, but it can at least be stated that the race is one to consider tackling each way, providing the 18 declared runners do not drop below 16 by off time.

The best prices on the win book at the time of writing come to 123% (you would need to stake £123 in proportion to all the horses’ odds to guarantee a return of £100 whatever the result), but that drops to £99 for the place element at one quarter the win odds the first four places.

You could, in theory, chisel out the smallest of guaranteed edges by backing all horses for a place. Bookmakers do not allow you to do that, not unreasonably, but they do allow you to match the place element with a win element, otherwise known as “each way”.

When looking at the so-called race trends, I got a bit excited about one or two of the findings, but that was short-lived as will be appreciated shortly.

There is nothing much to see in those age-group figures and nothing at all when one considers that there are no five-year-olds in Saturday’s race.

Similarly, the fractionally advantaged “mid group” on BHA ratings accounts for more than half of the field this time round, while there is, remarkably, only one last-time winner (top-weighted Flaming Spear) on show, a cohort that has disappointed on the whole.

So, we are left with positives for horses drawn towards the centre and horses high up in the Timeform weight-adjusted ratings (other measures, such as number of runs and wins in season in question and days off were considered but threw up little).

Those draw figures were initially for all Challenge Cups in the last decade, but field sizes for races before 2011 were much bigger and therefore probably non-transferable.

Trainers “in form” include Ian Williams (64% rivals beaten in handicaps only since August), Roger Varian and John Gosden (both 63%), while Dean Ivory (trainer of Flaming Spear) is on just 29% from 23 runners but has had two seconds in that time period.

That last-named stat may, or may not, bother you. It bothers me: Ivory was on 48% when Flaming Spear last ran, and won, at Goodwood in August.

Throwing all the above and a few other things into the mix, and then pricing up the race as best I could, I came to a conclusion with which not everyone is likely to be comfortable: Firmament is probably worth backing.

Firmament has become something of a cause celebre in social media circles. A talented and increasingly well-handicapped individual, he has had things conspire against him numerous times since last winning over two years ago.

But the suspicion has grown that he himself is one of the problems, and cries of “next time for Firmament!” have gone from being plaintive to sardonic as time has gone by. Well, it is social media.

On the other hand, Firmament has been placed nine times since that last win, including on his last two starts, almost never runs poorly, achieved his highest ever Timeform rating when second off 6 lb higher in this race two years ago, and looks to be about perfectly drawn in stall 6 with most of the pace immediately to either side of him.

Even more to the point, he is a double-figure price for the Challenge Cup and this is definitely not a case of chasing my losses, as I have managed to resist the temptation to get involved with the costly Firmament Project until now.

I would have the David O’Meara-trained six-year-old second or third favourite behind Cape Byron (who looks to be priced about right as favourite) and close to favourite in a place-only market. We shall see.

There are one or two similar “give him one last chance” types in opposition, including the well-handicapped Raising Sand, who finished first on the stand side when eighth in last week’s Cambridgeshire despite getting well behind, not for the first time.

That looked pretty encouraging, but closer inspection shows that the average difference between near side and far side in that race was small (about 3 lb) and not enough to tempt me in anyway.

Instead, I am willing to side with Firmament each way, for better or worse. We know he can do it, but does he?

Recommendation: 1 pt e/w FIRMAMENT