Rowleyfile Preview: Challenge Cup Handicap 2016

The narrow – or, at times, non-existent – gap between top handicaps and Group races can be illustrated by the recent history of the seven-furlong Heritage Handicap at Ascot on Saturday. The last six winners have averaged Timeform performance ratings in the race itself of 117. That is the kind of figure that would usually be required to win an older-horse Group 3 or even Group 2 contest.

This year’s edition, known as the totescoop6 Challenge Cup, features 18 useful-or-better runners, and it is no great stretch to see at least half of them as credible Group performers, now or in the future.

The race is sufficiently open, as well as classy, that every runner bar one of the 18 could be backed at double-figure odds in the early exchanges. That exception is Librisa Breeze, who undoubtedly has a decent chance but who looks too short at around 6/1.

It is, as usual, handy to look at what the trends, and other forms of analysis, say. The following figures are taken from the last 10 runnings and measure performance by wins, first-four places, impact values for those two, and % of rivals beaten.

There is, in fact, not a great deal to be seen there, or in other categories which are not displayed (such as wins in current season, weight carried, and so on), though that in itself is noteworthy.

A draw in the middle has been advantageous over the years, and produced six of the last ten winners, as has a last-time second position, whose cohort has accounted for an impressive 63.1% of rivals where 50% would be par.

Other things to throw into the mix include trainer form, as measured by % of rivals beaten in handicaps in the last month, which reflects well on John Gosden (Remarkable, 66.7%) and William Haggas (Squats and Afjaan, 71.0%). Dean Ivory (Librisa Breeze, 44.0%) and Richard Hannon (Burnt Sugar, 44.1%) bring up the rear for trainers with a significant number of recent runners.

It is also worth considering the likely pace profile of the race. Ascot’s straight course has tended to see hold-up horses do well (on account of a preponderance of well-run races on a fairly stiff track) but there appears to be a shortage of pace-forcers in this field. Only two – Coprah and Watchable – have Timeform EPFs of less than 2.4, and the latter is a suspect stayer, so far from sure to be asked to front-run.

Interestingly, Librisa Breeze is the horse with the highest EPF (4.9, indicating a tendency to race in rear). The talented four-year-old is likely to need plenty to go right for him.

It is interesting to see that an absence of over eight weeks has not been a disadvantage, at least as judged by % of rivals beaten. The horse with the longest absence, of 108 days, is the aforementioned Remarkable, and there are good reasons to fancy his chance in other respects.

Remarkable won two ordinary contests early this year in impressive style then put up a massive sectional performance when second to all-the-way winner Log Out Island in a listed contest at Newbury, finishing like a train (one of those fast ones, not one of the ones I seem to end up on) to be beaten three and a quarter lengths having been much too far adrift early.

That was worth a sectional rating of 119, which should be just about good enough to win this race, and was enough for me to back Remarkable for the Jersey Stakes at Royal Ascot. Remarkable could manage only fifth in that, though he did not entirely get the run of things that day, either, and it was behind no less a horse than Ribchester, who is one of the season’s stars.

Remarkable has his quirks, and his spell on the sidelines have probably been in an attempt to sort those out. He remains with potential though may be something of an all-or-nothing proposition.

The other runner I am putting up is another from an in-form trainer. Squats has not added to the numerous wins achieved recently by his trainer William Haggas, but he ran a fine race despite being given a lot to do when fourth of 18 to Dutch Law at course and distance a month ago.

That was a slightly messy contest, but sectionals and visual impressions suggest Squats should very nearly have won set less to do. He had been second to Librisa Breeze in the International Handicap, again at course and distance, back in July and seems very well suited by the demands of the kind of race he will encounter on Saturday.

It has been more than two years since Squats won a race, but there does not seem to be anything wrong with his attitude. A close-up finish seems at least a possibility for him here.

Recommendations: 1 pt win REMARKABLE, 1 pt each-way SQUATS