Rowleyfile Preview: Caspian Caviar Gold Cup 2016

The second of two major two-and-a-half mile handicap chases at Cheltenham before Christmas has taken on many guises over the years, including that of the Robin Cook Memorial in 2005 (named for a politician who demonstrated more integrity than many of the current feckless lot put together), and is now the Caspian Caviar Gold Cup.

Whatever it happens to have been called, it can be seen as a twin of that earlier race – to old-timers the Mackeson to this one’s Massey Ferguson, and now the BetVictor Gold Cup – and a quintet of horses have come on this year from the earlier race to Saturday’s £100,000 contest.

These previews failed to get anywhere near a winner with its main selection in the BetVictor a month ago (As de Mee), but using trends in tandem with more traditional form study landed us on a nice winner at Aintree last week in Vieux Lion Rouge, and there seems no reason to change a winning approach.

Firstly, let’s look at the figures from the last 10 runnings of a race which did not take place in 2008.

Younger horses have done best over the years, with seven-year-olds best of all and horses older than eight worst. Horses in the medium-to-low weight band have fared well (primarily as judged by those “Place Impact Value” and “% of Rivals Beaten” figures), as have those with two previous runs in the season under review and a second-placed or third-placed effort last time.

Those “absence” figures look promising, but, in fact, nearly every runner in Saturday’s race falls into either of the favourable middle categories. Other factors were considered but produced little of note.

If you are looking for a seven-year-old, off a fairly light weight, and with two recent runs to its name, then there is just one qualifier – Sizing Codelco – though that last-time unplaced performance counts against him.

Sizing Codelco is also trained by Colin Tizzard – the most in-form trainer on show as judged by % RB in handicaps since October – and will be ridden by Aidan Coleman. He has shortened a fair bit this week to a best-priced 20/1, but that still looks value for a horse who ticks a number of those trends boxes.  

He started favourite for a handicap at Cheltenham the day before the BetVictor, on what was his first appearance for Tizzard, but made mistakes and seemed to find the 2m too sharp on ground similar to that he is likely to encounter again at the weekend.

While Sizing Codelco looks worth an interest at a longish price, my other selection is a more likely winner: indeed, I priced him at 6/1 favourite myself.

The Venetia Williams-trained Aso contested the BetVictor and looked sure to play a major part in the finish until let down by his jumping over the last two obstacles, finishing fourth. Up until that point, he had travelled better than anything: indeed, he traded at 2.02 (approximately evens) in the run.

Aso quickly made into a useful novice last season and chased home Douvan, Fox Norton and co when fifth in the Arkle Chase. He also won twice in the mud at around 21f to dispel any notion that he may be a short-runner. His BHA mark of 144 is several pounds shy of where I would expect him to end up this season if things go to plan.

Williams has been slow to get going this season, having hardly any runners between May and November, but the activity has taken off and the winners have started to come of late.

Aso will meet the BetVictor runner-up Village Vic (with whom he matched strides for much of the closing stages) on 3 lb better terms and the mercurial third-placer Buywise on 1 lb better, to underline that he probably has a bit in hand of the mark off which he again runs. Fifth-placed Bouvreuil (same terms) could be a bigger threat, though he could have appeared heartier that day.

The declaration of 16 runners would usually make the Caspian Caviar a highly appealing each-way proposition, but one is already a doubtful runner and it seems likely that numbers will drop below the “first-four places” threshold.

Win bets look to be the way to go, and we will take two again versus the field, one a “trends” pick and the other a more traditional form one.

Recommendations: 2 pts win ASO at 9/1, 1 pt win SIZING CODELCO at 20/1.