Rowleyfile Preview: Cambridgeshire Handicap

At first glance, Saturday’s Betfred-sponsored Cambridgeshire at Newmarket looks about as difficult a race as could be imagined in which to find a winner.

Thirty-five have been declared for the contest, run over a straight nine furlongs, and the vast majority of them have good form to their names in the not-too-distant past. Brexit negotiations might seem a doddle in comparison. 

But, not so fast. On closer inspection, there looks to be a clear divide between the “haves” and “have nots” – those who have a good chance and those who have not – and that is arguably not fully reflected in the betting.

Some of those at 25/1 and more should be two or three times their odds, in my book, and a few at shorter prices deserve to be shorter still.

This is not unusual for the Cambridgeshire, either. No less than six of the 16 winners this century have been returned at single-figure prices – three of them as clear favourites – and the median winning odds in that time are just 14/1.

This has not been the pinstickers’ paradise that might be imagined over the years, and I think that applies this time round, too.

First, let’s look at some of the “trends” over the last decade.

There is not a great deal in those draw “stats”, and the distribution of pace-forcers (as defined by Timeform’s unique Early Position Figures) is even enough to anticipate a reasonably clean scrap on this occasion.

Three-year-olds have over-performed, as judged by %RB, but not by much: Kings Gift, Novoman and Naval Warfare are that age-group’s representatives on Saturday. A lower weight has proved to be a fractional advantage, while a prominent last-time position and a good chance on Timeform weight-adjusted ratings are positives, as to be expected.

The best “trainer form” figures, derived from performances in handicaps since the middle of August, can be boasted by Saeed bin Suroor (Carry On Deryck and Very Talented, 75.0% RB) and John Gosden (GM Hopkins and Linguistic, 67.6%), though a handful of other trainers with runners in the big race are not far behind.

One of them is David Menuisier (57.9% RB), who has been making a bit of a stir from his small-scale yard in the last year and a bit. The star of his show is Thundering Blue, who has won at Epsom, Newmarket and Sandown on his last three outings and is favourite for this race as a consequence.

That Sandown win was easily his most impressive, as he stormed through from off the pace to win by one and a half lengths from Monarchs Glen, who won a Listed race at Goodwood earlier this week on his next appearance.

A rise in Thundering Blue’s BHA mark of 6 lb (to 93) does not look enough, and that is not said just with the hindsight of the runner-up’s subsequent win.

Thundering Blue put in some excellent sectionals late on at Sandown which suggest he should be running off nearer 100. Indeed, his last-4f time of 48.36s is the fastest by any horse at the Esher track at beyond a mile this year with the exception of the horses who filled the first four places in the Group 1 Eclipse Stakes in July. It suggests that Thundering Blue was value for a winning margin of nearer to five lengths that day and is potentially Listed class himself.

At odds of 7/1, the bookmakers are not entertaining an angel unawares, but I would argue that Thundering Blue should still be shorter than that.

There is no shortage of potential dangers, of course, but there is every reason to think that Thundering Blue will run his race and prove difficult to beat. The ground looks like being very similar on Saturday to what it was for his three wins; he stays 10f well and should come into his own at the end of a strongly-run 9f; and he has the excellent Jim Crowley on board.

Crowley will be aware that Thundering Blue does not always do a lot in front, for the gelding wandered “like a snipe” (in the words of the Timeform reporter) when in front for him at Sandown. Expect to see the pair come late and strong.

The shape of the betting on the race means that it is not especially advantageous to back each way rather than win only unless you can get terms better than a quarter the win odds the first four places. As it is, Thundering Blue appeals more as a win bet than an each-way bet, anyway.

With the rub of the green, and if on song on the day, Thundering Blue can enhance the record of short-priced horses in this prestigious contest.

Recommendation: 2 pts win THUNDERING BLUE at 7/1

Click here to read Simon's 32Red Gold Cup preview