Rowleyfile Preview: Cambridgeshire Handicap

Rumour has it that Britain’s Brexit negotiators were warned that if they failed to find a deal acceptable to all parties, while simultaneously honouring international treaties and the Good Friday Agreement, they would be punished by being moved onto something REALLY hard, such as cracking the Cambridgeshire Handicap.

As intractable problems go, trying to figure out which of the 35 in-form horses due to contest Saturday’s bet365-sponsored event is a good bet or a bad bet is right up there. It would be easy to give up, but many of us don’t. Like Everest, we try to conquer the Cambridgeshire “because it’s there”.

A consideration of the evidence should help. The following looks at some of the key trends from the last 10 years, with high figures for “place impact value” (factor by which horses in a given category have made the first four compared to chance) and “% of rivals beaten” being the best.

There is not a lot in those draw stats (which have been recoded to allow for non-runners and changes in numbering in 2011), but there has been a slight bias against horses drawn very high and in favour of those drawn very low taken on the whole.

That did not stop Dolphin Vista winning from the equivalent of stall 28 last year, when the runner-up Sands Chorus headed straight to the opposite side from stall 21. And it did not stop a number of horses performing particularly well close to the stand rail on the opening day of Newmarket’s three-day meeting.

Nonetheless, those wider figures might make you think twice about siding with the likes of the fancied Stylehunter (stall 32) and Seniority (27).

It is also worth noting at this stage that the distribution of pace-forcers – those with Timeform EPFs of 2.2 or less – is greatest in stalls 6 to 20, while hold-up types dominate the higher-numbered ones.

Horses with good chances on Timeform weight-adjusted ratings have fared well, as you would expect, while a prominent last-time position has been good (if not as good for last-time winners as might be anticipated).

There is essentially nothing in those age-related figures over the last decade, but here it is worth introducing some more recent facts.

The general bias in favour of three-year-olds in longer-distance older-horse handicaps has been in evidence again this season, but it is persisting later than is sometimes the case. Three-year-olds running in Britain against their elders at 9f and more beat 54% to 55% of their rivals in May to August inclusive, and that figure is still at 53.6% in September.

There are five three-year-olds on show on Saturday, and that more recent evidence suggests they deserve plenty of respect.

In particular, I like the look of Kenya and Danceteria, who both showed up very well on sectionals last time, if for different reasons.

Kenya won the Irish equivalent of this race in tremendous style two starts ago and might well have followed up in a Group 2 at Leopardstown but for overdoing the front-running tactics. He returned a 98% finishing speed, while the last-to-first winner I Can Fly was significantly nearer to par on 101%.

The overall time for that race was good, and the abiding impression is that Kenya is capable of very smart form, especially if his energy can be rationed more suitably. Even a mark of 106 does not look beyond Kenya in his current rudeness of health.

By contrast, Danceteria got too far back last time in a falsely-run race at the Curragh in which the race finishing speed came in at over 110%. It was very much to his credit that he passed many of his rivals to finish a never-dangerous fifth.

Before that, Danceteria won four on the trot, often running good splits, and providing another glowing advertisement for the skills of his trainer, David Menuisier. It is difficult to imagine a race more likely to suit the gelding than the Cambridgeshire, assuming it is well-run and he gets the breaks.

There are numerous others who deserve a mention, including Sharja Bridge, who would almost be disputing favouritism in my book, Sabador, who is a big price if he lasts the extra distance, and Mordin, who may struggle to win but who could easily go close.

In mathematical terms, the Cambridgeshire is better tackled each way (129% book at early prices) than win only (138%), but not by as much as is sometimes the case.

The recommendation is to back one pace-forcer and one late-closer, both of them three-year-olds and both drawn towards the centre of the course, and that may be best done on the nose. The Cambridgeshire is due off at 3:40.

Recommendations: 1 pt win KENYA 1 pt win DANCETERIA