Rowleyfile Preview: Cambridgeshire

Large-field handicaps are not everyone’s cup of tea, but for those who succeed in cracking the puzzle the rewards can be that much greater than ordinary races.

How to “crack the puzzle” of Saturday’s bet365 Cambridgeshire Handicap at Newmarket may be a matter of personal preference, but considering the evidence from the last 10 editions seems like a good place to start.

Do you want to know how, say, three-year-olds have fared in the big race in recent years? Or what is the effect of the draw? Sit back, for that part of the hard work has been done for you.

The answers to those two questions are: “three-year-olds do fine, but there is little in any age-related trends”; and “there is not much in the draw, other than that horses drawn very high have been at a disadvantage”.

In the absence of Mordred and Torcello (the only non-runners at the time of writing), three-year-olds account for nine of the remaining 33 runners, while those drawn 29 or higher – which will become 28 or higher when shuffled across – include strong public fancies Le Don de Vie, Good Birthday and Lord North. That is something to think about.

It may also be seen that horses which finished outside the first six on their most recent starts have fared poorly, while those high up on Timeform weight-adjusted ratings have done well.

Those market-related figures, with a positive return for those starting at less than 16 (15/1) on Betfair Exchange, are close to neutral and probably nothing to get excited about.

Among other findings (not shown) are that horses carrying 8-08 or less have done quite well (win impact value of 1.32 times chance, place IV of 1.21 and 54.2% of rivals beaten), and that horses with three or fewer runs in the season under consideration have been similar (1.24 win IV, 1.44 place IV, 52.6% %RB).

The Timeform pace forecast is “very strong”, but with stalls 1, 4 and 20 identified much more as likely pace-forcers than their rivals. Amanda Perrett (64.8%), John Gosden (62.4%) and Roger Varian (60.1%) have fared best among trainers with a significant number of runners in handicaps in the last month, as measured by % of rivals beaten.

There is a lot to take in there, so I will cut to the chase and put up two contenders and explain why.

First up is Majestic Dawn, a three-year-old running off a light weight and arguably unexposed after just six life-time starts. He has fared respectably in competitive handicaps on his last three starts, despite not getting home at 12f at Royal Ascot on one of them, but it is his win before that in a maiden at Newbury that particularly interests.

He smashed up seven rivals that day – most of whom have gone on to be useful or close to useful – by six lengths and more, racing enthusiastically from the front. That was the last time he had truly soft going, and any rain – and plenty is forecast by some sources – could well help him, but his creditable third on this course last time came on firm.

There is a question mark as to how Majestic Dawn will cope with this shorter trip of 9f, but he is one of that trio of front-runners mentioned earlier, and it is likely he will be ridden to make full use of his stamina in a race which should tax the pure milers.

Stamina will be no problem either for Jazeel, who has a win over Sandown’s 10f in July and a never-dangerous ninth over 12f at York last time to his name, along with several other strong efforts.

He did notably well on sectionals in that York race, having got too far back, but his come-from-behind style could well be seen to good effect at this 9f given the likely pace. A couple of unplaced efforts recently simply do not do justice to how well he has been running.

Most handicaps of 16 or more runners are good each-way vehicles, and this is no exception, though less so than those near to that magic threshold. Nonetheless, you may well get enhanced place terms if you shop around, and “shop around” is the advice, as well as “back Majestic Dawn and Jazeel each way”.

Recommendations:

0.5 pt e/w MAJESTIC DAWN (16/1)

0.5 pt e/w JAZEEL (16/1)

*one quarter the odds first four places or better