Rowleyfile Preview: Britannia Stakes

The Britannia Handicap at Royal Ascot on Thursday presents a very similar conundrum to the previous day’s Royal Hunt Cup in terms of analysing the likely effect of the draw, and readers are directed to the opening comments on that earlier race regarding the methodology employed.

There are two sets of figures to focus on: one for “all” ground in the last 10 renewals of both the Britannia and the Royal Hunt Cup; and one for the trio of “soft” (strictly, softer than good) races therein. The threat of soft ground seems to have receded, but you never can be sure.

On normal going there has been a small advantage to being in the centre as opposed to the flanks – as judged by % of rivals beaten – which has increased as the ground got softer.

In addition, the most obvious pace, as judged by Timeform EPFs, comes from Sameem in stall 21 (19 if the reserves do not go) and Certain Lad in 11 (9). Nonetheless, there is a bit of pace still lower and even more still higher.

We can also consider some of the trends for the Britannia alone over the last 10 years, though I, for one, could not find many angles in this area.

There is not much in the position in the handicap, with those three groupings having close to even representation this year, but a win in the year already has been a small advantage. Those Betfair SP figures (with the stakes set to return 100 points, and therefore less subject to variation) show that neither favourites nor outsiders have done especially well in the last decade.

The figures for absence are against a short or a long turnaround, with the result that the middle brackets have profited.

We can cut to the chase, and tackle what is again one of the most competitive handicaps of the entire year.

No less than 10 of the 33 runners (of which three will not compete) have Timeform “p”s on their ratings, indicating the likelihood of improvement. If anything, that is being sparing!

Of the others, Dubai Legacy is one I am interested in stepping up to a mile (he strides like it will suit him), but this race is even hotter than the one he finished third to Beat Le Bon in at Goodwood last time.

It is going to require not just a well-handicapped horse, but a VERY well-handicapped horse at the top of his game, to win or perhaps even place in this race. Step forward King Ademar.

The Martyn Meade-trained colt has not won a race of any description, let alone this year, but that will surely change before long, and possibly here.

King Ademar’s first foray into handicap company at Nottingham a couple of weeks ago saw him catch a tartar in the form of Ouzo, who beat him by a neck in receipt of 13 lb with a healthy gap back to the rest. Ouzo has run since, and won readily under a 6 lb penalty at Sandown. The form stacks up.

The brave Ouzo beats off King Ademar in a good three-year-old handicap for @LeveySean and @rhannonracing at @NottsRacecourse

Results ➡ https://t.co/glajGV55GR pic.twitter.com/vMwyvcYzOR

— Racing TV (@RacingTV) June 5, 2019

King Ademar may not need to be any better than he was that day to win, or very nearly win, here, but if a little extra help is needed then it could come from cheekpieces, with which he is equipped for the first time now.

King Ademar is drawn in the centre – stall 16, which will become 14 if the reserves pull out – and that looks no bad thing and could become a good thing. Expect him to go close granted the rub of the green.

Perhaps his biggest danger is drawn next to him in the form of Davydenko, a Sir Michael Stoute-trained colt with some really good splits from his win at Thirsk last time. This will be a bigger step up in class for him than for King Ademar, however.

This is a better race to tackle from an each-way point of view than a win-only point of view in mathematical terms, and King Ademar looks a solid each-way proposition to boot. That is the recommendation.

Recommendation: 1 pt e/w King Ademar at 12/1 one-fifth the odds SIX places