Rowleyfile Preview: Breeders' Cup 2016

The Saturday of the Breeders’ Cup is definitely one of my favourite racing occasions of the year, not just for the razzmatazz associated with the self-styled “World Thoroughbred Championships” and the excellent racing, but also because for one night of the year otherwise Europhobic racing fans remember that Britain is part of a greater continent.

Cheering “Come on Europe!” has reaped rewards over the years, especially in the golden eras of the French-trained fillies Miesque and Goldikova. But raiders from the mainland are hardly to be seen at the 2016 Breeders’ Cup, leaving patriotic Brits with a slightly uncomfortable alliance with the Irish. “Come on the British Isles!” may be geographically correct, but it does not have quite the same ring to it.

Betting for profit should be divorced from sentiment and nationalism, of course, and the Breeders’ Cup does provide plenty of opportunity for betting for profit (and for loss). Many of the same principles as usual apply: research, level-headedness and discipline, though the last two may prove more difficult than usual with this year’s big event coinciding with the excesses of Bonfire Night.

One area in which research can pay dividends is with the draw. For some strange reason, a lot of US statistics present draw data (or “Post Position data”, as the locals call it) as strike-rates, ignoring the fact that a horse drawn in, say, stall 12 will have a minimum of 11 rivals, while one drawn in stall 1 may have many fewer. It would be a surprise if the latter did not have a better strike-rate than the former.

One way to allow for this is to use Impact Values, or wins compared to chance, with “chance” being dictated by field sizes, which will vary. The following are the findings for race distances in use on Saturday night for which sufficient information exists (where sample sizes are small the figures are presented in square brackets).

It can be seen that the inner has been disadvantaged or the outer advantaged (similar, but not quite the same thing) in races on dirt at Santa Anita given that higher impact values are good and lower ones are bad. The data used was from the start of the 2014 Breeders’ Cup at the course to the present day: that’s over 2,000 races and over 17,000 individual performances.

That is worth bearing in mind both in advance and as events unfold.

There is no obligation to bet in every race, nor to support financially every vaguely familiar runner, though I happen to think that one Brit in particular is a good proposition.

Queen’s Trust will contest the Filly & Mare Turf at 19:43 GMT and could well out-run her odds. Readers of Timeform’s Sectional Debriefs through the year will know that the Sir Michael Stoute-trained filly remains something of an untapped talent.

She was set too much to do in both the Ribblesdale Stakes and Fillies’ And Mares’ Stakes at Ascot, and in between ran Minding quite close in the Nassau Stakes at Goodwood and seemingly failed to last a well-run 12f in the Yorkshire Oaks at York.

In that last-named event, Queen’s Trust finished third to Seventh Heaven, who goes again in this, but the race played much more to the latter’s stamina, and less to Queen’s Trust’s speed, than will 10f around Santa Anita. Doubts about Queen’s Trust’s stamina are presumably behind why she has been set so much to do at times. A strongly-run 10f could well prove just the ticket for her.

Sectionals are behind the selection of Queen’s Trust, and they are behind the selection of Syndergaard in the Juvenile (21:43 GMT), too.

The Todd Pletcher-trained youngster did far too much too soon in the Champagne Stakes at Belmont last time, but – somehow, miraculously – nearly hung on for a win, outbobbed by a colt, in Practical Joke, who had been well in arrears for much of the way.

Syndergaard’s final-quarter finishing speed was around 91% of his average speed for the race overall, whereas Practical Joke’s was a much-closer-to-par 97%. “You do the math”, as our transatlantic cousins might say: Syndergaard was the “moral” winner of that prestigious race, and by some way.

He has plenty of opposition, however, including the unbeaten Gormley, the promising Not This Time and the erstwhile generational leader Klimt. The last-named was beaten last time, but things did not go his way. Syndergaard also has an inner draw to overcome, but the impression is that he could be more than equal to that.

Flintshire is one of those that the Euros would have got behind in days gone past, such as when he finished second in the Turf in 2014, but he has been trained in the US this year and seems to have benefited from the switch, winning his first three races in good style before encountering unsuitably soft ground last time.

He bids to go one better in the Turf this year (22:02 GMT) and faces stern opposition from the Aidan O’Brien-trained pair of Found (winner of the race in 2015) and Highland Reel. But the Flintshire of 2016 has looked far less one-paced than the previous version, which can be crucial at a track like this, and he seems up to the job. Unlike his main rivals, this race has always been the plan.

The Breeders’ Cup Mile (23:40 GMT) has not always been the plan for Brit challenger Limato, about whom there are stamina doubts. He might not be quite up to beating Tepin if that mare is at her best, in any case, and the pair dominate the betting along with Alice Springs, who looks a length or two their inferior.

The intriguing contender here is Photo Call, who inflicted a surprise defeat on Tepin at Keeneland last time. The consensus is that Photo Call was greatly flattered that day – how else to explain her odds of around 20/1 when Tepin is less than 3/1? – but the evidence does not really support that.

Photo Call made all and got clear that day, but she went a good pace and ran the finish out of Tepin, who could make only laboured late headway.

Sectionals show that Photo Call got to the halfway stage in a swift 47.29s, and that her final-quarter finishing speed was just 96% of her average speed for the race overall, but still nothing could get to her.

Timeform US – who combine sectional and overall time analysis – awarded Photo Call a figure of 136, which is good enough to win this and easily good enough to make Photo Call a value proposition at the odds. It is worth the risk, for sure. 

Last, but by no means least, there is the Classic at 35 minutes past midnight GMT. The favourite for the race, California Chrome, has gone from being “just” a decent Kentucky Derby and Preakness winner to one who is knocking on the door of all-time greatness.

But he has to face a couple of rivals, in Frosted and Arrogate, who have been sensationally good (and fast) on at least one recent occasion. Wherever your allegiances lie, you need not feel compelled to have a bet, but you miss a race as good as this could be at your peril!    

Recommendations:

1 pt e/w QUEEN’S TRUST in the Filly & Mare Turf (19:43 GMT)

1 pt win SYNDERGAARD in the Juvenile (21:43 GMT)

2 pts win FLINTSHIRE in the Turf (22:22 GMT)

1 pt win PHOTO CALL in the Mile (23:40 GMT)