Rowleyfile Preview: BetVictor Gold Cup 2016

One of the many great things about the sport of horseracing is that it provides a bolt hole from what can often seem like a weird and worrying world. So it is that, while we all look like we may soon be going to Hell in a handcart, one of the chief preoccupations of people on my Twitter timeline is what will be winning at Cheltenham over the next few days.

If there is to be an Armageddon – sparked by Trump or some other unstable megalomaniac – then many of us want our final memory to be that of having backed a nice-priced winner, rather than of our loved-ones, or so it seems.

Hopefully, the end of the world as we know it will not be in the next few days. But, just in case, there is the small matter of the BetVictor Gold Cup Handicap Chase on Saturday to be considered.

As is customary with these previews, I looked at the last 10 runnings of the race – when sponsored by Paddy Power – and measured effects by wins, places, impact values (performance of wins/places compared to chance) and % of rivals beaten. The higher the figure, the better, in each instance. These were a few of the findings:

Some information is undoubtedly interesting, others is a bit “meh”. But, in the latter case, the absence of an effect could be considered meaningful in itself.

However, the apparent bias to younger horses looks significant. Five-year-olds and six-year-olds have won and placed 1.26 times as often as could be expected by chance, and they have beaten over 58% of their rivals, where 50% would be par.

Five-year-olds have done even better than six-year-olds, but this strays into small-sample territory. No four-year-olds have contested the race in the last decade.

Last-time winners have also done well, though that is to be expected, all other things being equal. The positive return for the relatively small number of winners-already in the current season is not quite as powerful but is perhaps more useful.

I also looked at the current form in handicaps of trainers with runners in Saturday’s race, as judged by %RB. Alan King, Colin Tizzard, Tom George and Paul Nicholls have the best figures; Venetia Williams, Robin Dickin, Evan Williams, David Pipe and Jonjo O’Neill have the worst.

Another feature of the BetVictor Gold Cup is that it looks like being run at a strong pace and representing a good test of stamina at the extended two-and-a-half-mile trip. Seven of the 19 declared runners have Timeform Early Position Figures of 2.2 or less.

The early market is headed by More of That – well-handicapped on his hurdles form, but less so on his chase form, and trained by Jonjo O’Neill – and Frodon, with the latter a four-year-old with just three chases (against just nine rivals) under his belt.

One with a lot more chasing experience, despite the fact that he broke his maiden only last time, is Frodon’s stable-companion As de Mee. The six-year-old crossed swords with some good novices last term, including when running More of That to two and a half lengths at this meeting 12 months ago.

That was at level weights, but As de Mee is due to receive 15 lb from his old rival on Saturday. As de Mee also split 152-rated Bristol de Mai and 149-rated Tea For Two in a Grade 1 at Sandown in February. You might imagine he would have a mark well into the 140s, but he doesn’t: he gets to run off 139.

As de Mee’s recent maiden win came at lowly Fontwell, but at the chief expense of the fairly useful Royal Vacation (has run well since) and with bags in hand. There should not be too much doubt that this is a well-treated individual, though the same could be said of a number of his rivals in what is a £160,000-added contest.

It does all come down to value, of course. Having priced up the race “blind”, I found that only two horses were over-priced on my tissue once the bookmakers’ over-round was stripped out. One was As de Mee, the other the top-weight Ballynagour.

The latter does not have the sort of profile usually looked for in this race – he is the oldest horse in it, for instance – but he does seem over-priced given his proven form, which includes a second off this mark in the big-field Summer Plate at Market Rasen last time. He is one of the few usually ridden patiently, which may help him to pick up some of the action late on.

Nineteen runners and one-quarter the win odds for a place make the BetVictor Gold Cup an enticing each-way proposition. If you shop around, you may even get more than the conventional four places.

Recommendations:

1 pt each-way AS DE MEE at 10/1, 0.5 pt each-way BALLYNAGOUR at 25/1