Rowleyfile Preview: BetVictor Gold Cup

According to scientists, you can carbon-date the age of racing fans by the name with which they refer to the first big two-and-a-half-mile handicap chase of the jumps season at Cheltenham.

To some, it is the Paddy Power Gold Cup (2003 to 2015), to a handful it is the Thomas Pink (2000 to 2002), or even the Murphys (1996 to 1999). But to many – including me – it will forever be the Mackeson Gold Cup (1960 to 1995).

Either way, it is now officially the BetVictor Gold Cup and retains its standing as a race of no small significance in the season as a whole and not just the early part of it.

Such talented performers as Fortria, Dunkirk and Gay Trip won it in the early years, Bradbury Star and Dublin Flyer in the intervening ones, and Imperial Commander (a future Cheltenham Gold Cup winner) and Al Ferof in more recent ones.

It would be a bit of a surprise if any of this year’s runners measured up to those horses’ achievements, but we do have a fiercely competitive and good quality 18-runner contest to look forward to.

As is customary, we can look at a few of the trends associated with the race over the last 10 years to see if any patterns emerge. As is also customary, it is worth stressing that the best measures of all are Place Impact Value and % of Rivals Beaten.

Judged on winners alone, it might be thought that seven-year-olds – responsible for six of the last 10 to succeed – have a significant advantage, but winners-only is a very crude way of looking at such things.

On Place Impact Value (factor by which a group made the first four compared to chance) and % of Rivals Beaten, seven-year-olds have performed better than par, but not by a lot. The take-away message is that younger is better, with the small number of four- and five-year-olds best of all by the latter measure.

Last-time winners have done well, as you would expect them to, though it is more clear-cut in this instance than is generally the case.

There is not a lot in handicap marks and even less in the effect of absences, which is newsworthy in itself: quick turn-around, slow turn-around, or somewhere in between amounts to much the same.

I also looked at the performance in handicaps since September of trainers with runners, measured by % RB. There are not many “out of form” handlers, and the best of all are Fergal O’Brien (67.1% RB, Mystifiable), Harry Fry (65.4%, Kylemore Lough) and Paul Nicholls (59.5%, Le Prezien and Romain de Senam).

One thing that seems guaranteed is that there will be a good or even strong pace: Days of Heaven, Splash of Ginge and Foxtail Hill are all habitual front-runners, and the last-named is capable of both going a fast pace and of sustaining it.

Such tactics can pay off at Cheltenham, especially in big fields, where fences and numerous rivals make it a tricky job to pick your way through from the back. Still, there is a roughly optimum way of a horse expending its energy, and pace-forcers may compromise that in search of a track advantage in other respects.

Such considerations are relevant for those looking to support Romain de Senam – and I am one of them – for he tends to come from furthest back of all, with a Timeform Early Position Figure of 4.1 on a scale of 1 (front-runner) to 5 (in rear). He may need the rub of the green to do so.

Romain de Senam has a couple of big ticks next to his name in terms of being the only last-time-winning five-year-old in the field, and he is trained by one of the race’s most in-form handlers.

The gelding has long been well-regarded, and put a rather patchy novice season behind him with two wins out of two this time round. He scored easily at Chepstow then had to battle harder to beat the promising Burtons Well by a neck at Stratford, though that was an occasion on which his jockey did not get serious on him until very late in the day.

Romain de Senam goes off 6 lb higher now but looks up to that and is one of the few genuinely progressive types in the field. He stays this trip well and will be fine on the forecast good to soft going or firmer.

I had him in at 13/2, and the early 9/1 looks perfectly acceptable. The early win book is 119% (you would need to stake £119 in proportion to each horse’s odds to guarantee a return of £100) but the place book at ¼ odds is just 95% for the first four places and a bet-compelling 76% for the first five.

In such circumstances, an each-way bet is the sensible way to go. In Romain de Senam we look to have the right ammunition.

Recommendation: 1 pt each way ROMAIN DE SENAM 1/4 odds first FIVE places at 9/1

Click here to read Ben Fearnley's Greatwood Hurdle preview