Rowleyfile Preview: Betfred Mobile Stakes

Whichever horse wins the six-furlong three-year-old Heritage Handicap on the opening day of Newmarket’s July Meeting will have some pretty big shoes to fill. Last year’s winner was Magical Memory, who has gone onto Group success since and looks to have as good a chance as any in Saturday’s Darley July Cup.

What’s more, every other recent winner has been rated 96 or better by Timeform: this is a quality race at a time of the year when three-year-olds are beginning to come into their own.

Although the race – sponsored this year by Betfred Mobile – does not have an immediately identifiable title, it does have a lengthy past, which means that we can look at 10-year trends for it.

As usual, the runs, wins and places by each category are supplemented by more useful impact values (wins/places compared to chance) and % of rivals beaten, with the higher the figure the better in both cases.

Regulars to these previews are likely to spot that there is not very much to get excited about there.

The historical advantage to horses drawn in the middle (especially middle to high) over those drawn on the flanks is of interest; with no horse carrying less than 8-08 this year, there is nothing in those weight categories; lightly-raced horses have done okay judged by % RB, if less so by impact values; a prominent last-time position can be considered an advantage, but no more so than usual; and with none of the 20 in Thursday’s field reappearing in under 19 days, length of absence matters for little.

There are some statistics specific to this year’s race which are worth noting also. The most in-form trainers with runners, as judged by % RB in handicaps since May, are Andrew Balding (67.8%, Dancing Star), William Haggas (63.9%, Light Music) and Dean Ivory (62.9%, Kadrizzi), while the most out-of-form are Rae Guest (20.5%, though from a small sample, Show Stealer) and Marco Botti (37.4%, Dhahmaan).

It also seems likely that there will be a strong pace in this contest, as five of the runners have Timeform Early Position Figures of under 2, denoting a habitual front-runner or pace-forcer. There could be an element of throat-cutting among them.

That could help the top weight and likeliest favourite Taneen, who came from off a strong pace to win in style at Leicester last time. He looked a colt going places that day, much more so than when well beaten in a listed contest at Newbury the time before. He has, however, gone up fully 12 lb in the handicap as a result of his four-and-a-half length success.

It is worth locating the video of that Leicester race if you can, not just for what it tells you about Taneen, but for what it tells you about the second and third that day, Madrinho and Bounce.

Madrinho was out with the washing in the first half of the race before running past beaten horses late in the day (he has been well beaten since) but Bounce shaped with significantly more promise. The daughter of Bahamian Bounty travelled strongly close up and led for much of the penultimate furlong before fading on what was her first run of the campaign.

Her trainer, Henry Candy, was struggling for winners at the time but has been doing better since. It seems likely that Bounce will come on for that effort and that she is a useful sprinter in the making. It also seems likely that Fergus Sweeney will get more cover in this bigger field and produce her later.

My betting forecast had little between Taneen and Bounce, with Dancing Star and Strong Challenge third and fourth in, but Bounce can be backed at 10/1, double the odds of her main rival. That settles it for me.   

As usual, the type of bet that should be struck is informed by the terms that are being offered. The best early prices come to 118% in the win book (you would need to stake £118 proportionately on every horse to return £100 whatever the outcome) and 459% in the place book.

The latter would make some appeal with four places available but makes considerably more appeal with five, which is what at least one of the major bookmakers is offering. So, an each-way bet on such terms is the way to go.

Recommendation: 1 pt each-way BOUNCE (1/4 odds first FIVE places) at 10/1