Rowleyfile Preview: Betfred Classic Chase

It is a funny old world in which barely a word was said about the demise in 2014 of Flat racing at Jockey Club Racecourses-owned Warwick, and yet many within the sport are displaying an unexpected and very public affection for Kempton Park – where the vast majority of racing these days takes place on all-weather – now that the same company is proposing closure of that venue.

Red Rum was the most famous horse to run on the Flat at Warwick, in 1967. It can only be imagined what “Rummy” would have made of the suddenly-popular all-weather, given the chance, but in his heyday he would surely have thrived in a race like Warwick’s Betfred Classic Handicap Chase, due to be run over more than three miles and five furlongs on Saturday.

Jumping and stamina will be at a premium, the latter especially with soft ground forecast. What other attributes might we look out for in order to home in on value propositions in a race which has 22 declared runners?

As is customary with these previews, I looked at some “trends” and other factors as a way of getting to grips with the task. The following are the results from the last 10 runnings of the Classic Chase (which did not take place in 2009 and 2010), with the best measures being place impact value (places compared to chance) and % of rivals beaten. Higher is better in both instances.

Younger is better, too, as is often the case in handicaps, with horses aged eight and under having a healthy record. There are just five such individuals in this year’s contest: Vivaldi Collonges; One For Arthur; Ballycross; Kingswell Theatre; and Sartorial Elegance.

Weight carried has offered little guide to performance (and BHA mark, which is related, was little different); having a good chance on Timeform ratings has been a positive, as you would expect (if not necessarily to such a degree); last-time winners have a surprisingly mediocre record, as have winners of any race in the season under review (the two are linked).  

In addition, the performance in handicaps-only since November, as judged by % RB, has been especially good for the trainers Tom Symonds (68.1%) and Kerry Lee (65.8%), and poor for Neil King (29.1%).

A closer inspection of the individual claims of the runners brought me to the realisation that not only were there a lot of older-than-ideal horses, but plenty of them were out-of-form plodders, too. The early prices have the vast majority of the 22 between 10/1 and 20/1: I think it should be more lop-sided than that.

In particular, I like the claims of Ballycross and One For Arthur, both of whom would be at single-figure odds in my book.

Ballycross is not only a well-treated six-year-old with some potential, in a race in which plenty seem to be going nowhere at present, it seems that his last run – when third in a handicap at Chepstow over Christmas – has been generally under-rated. The time for that contest was excellent by my reckoning, and the two who beat Ballycross – Pobbles Bay and Ibis du Rheu – are not far behind the best novice chasers seen this season.

Ballycross gets to run off the same mark here and promises to be even better at this marathon distance.

One For Arthur is not quite so compelling, but he does look a solid proposition. There was plenty to like about his fifth to Vieux Lion Rouge in a big field for the Becher Chase over the Grand National fences at Aintree last time, when he stayed on strongly having got too far out of his ground.

Such a run style could prove problematical here, given that five fences in little more than two furlongs on the side of the course at Warwick generally means it is difficult to make up ground at that point. But there is every prospect that the leaders will be coming back, or will be about to come back, before the home straight with several front-runners or pace-forcers in the field.

One For Arthur has shown himself to be a notably safe conveyance, has a good record in the mud, and it is easy to see him picking up a slice of the action late on.

Ballycross looks the likelier to win – arguably, the likeliest of all in the field to win – but One For Arthur’s credentials make him worth backing also, each way.

Recommendations:

2 pts win BALLYCROSS at 10/1

1 pt each-way ONE FOR ARTHUR at 10/1