Rowleyfile Preview: Betfair Hurdle 2018

The rumours of the demise of the Betfair Hurdle appear to have been exaggerated. While last year’s edition attracted “just” 16 runners, with some connections preferring to wait for less valuable options at the Cheltenham Festival, this year’s has a full complement of 24 plus two reserves, and the vast majority of those are in red-hot form.

The first three last year went off at single-figure odds, with Ballyandy a successful 3/1 favourite, but this year the early betting has it 10/1 the field. It is no easy job to pick one to go close, let alone one to win.

While much must remain speculation, there are some facts on which we can base any views. Such as: that the shape of the early market lends itself to an each-way bet, with the win-only % at 124 and the place version at 105 (assuming ¼ odds first four places); also, that there are fully nine runners with Timeform Early Position Figures identifying them as pace-forcers, so that a strong gallop seems more than likely.

We can also consider what the “trends” tell about a race which has a long and noteworthy history. These are some of the headline figures for the last 10 runnings of it:

The two right-hand columns are the most important and show, among other things, that: younger has been better, a first-three finish on the most recent start has been a positive, and a lengthy layoff has proved not to be a disadvantage.

Those age-group figures are particularly interesting, for they show that every one of the last 10 winners has been six-years-old or younger, but that the bias is nowhere near as pronounced if judged by more sophisticated measures.

There is also arguably something of a sweet spot in the middle-to-low range of BHA marks, which is replicated in weights carried (not shown).

Ultimately, though, it comes down to a question of price, and whether or not there are any horses available at bigger odds than they should be. I think there are, and one in particular who arguably should be favourite but which is a few positions back with most bookmakers in the early exchanges.

That horse – or mare, more precisely – is Verdana Blue, one of five representatives of the in-form Nicky Henderson yard, and one who looks likely to be very well suited by the demands of the contest in question.

She won a handicap hurdle at Ascot in November in which almost everything to have run subsequently has franked the form. Verdana Blue herself returned to that course in December to finish third in the valuable Racing Welfare Handicap Hurdle off an 8-lb higher mark, but that tells only part of the story.

Verdana Blue travelled well in rear for a long way that day and also went widest of all, but could not peg back the first two in a race in which the pace was by no means strong.

There is every reason to expect her to go well again off a mark only 1 lb higher here. In particular, the prospect of a truer pace should suit her run style and give her every chance of picking off her rivals in the long home straight. I made her about an 8/1 chance.

Credible rivals abound, but I have to say I do not particularly fancy the novices Kalashnikov – likely to be better at further – and Lalor – still a maiden over timber – off marks of 141 and 137 which seem to factor in all their potential and a bit more besides.

Another Henderson inmate, Kayf Grace, definitely comes into the reckoning, though an 8 lb increase in his mark for a ready win at Kempton over the Christmas period looks to be taking few chances. Silver Streak – one of seven five-year-olds in the field – may not be fully exposed yet, but the selection shaped better than him when they met last time for my money.

Perhaps the most interesting of the others is Irish Roe, who is top on Timeform weight-adjusted timefigures courtesy of her excellent second to the talented Maria’s Benefit at Doncaster last time. She proved well suited by waiting tactics in a well-run race that day and has plenty of experience now for a novice.

But she still does not make quite as much appeal as a mare who shaped well in third off much the same handicap mark, and in a race very nearly as strong as this, when last seen.

More of the same from Verdana Blue should see her hit the frame, and a bit more improvement could easily see her back in the winner’s enclosure.

Recommendation:

1 pt each way VERDANA BLUE at 14/1, ¼ the odds, 1, 2, 3, 4.