Rowleyfile Preview: Betfair Hurdle

It has been an odd week or two in the world of horseracing, with bleak talk of a long-term shutdown before action returned sooner than many expected, but with a few of the protagonists forced to watch from the sidelines.

One upshot is that we have some truly excellent racing this weekend, with the usual quality card at Ascot additionally supplemented by diverted races from Newbury a week ago. Thankfully, the Betfair Hurdle has been saved, and that is the subject of this preview.

It has gone from being a long two-miler on a left-handed track to a short two-miler on a right-handed track, and from a race run more often than not on soft/heavy going of late to one likely to take place on something rather less testing. But in other respects it is what it was: a handicap valuable enough to attract a really strong field.

It is worth looking for clues in the race’s history, but with a slight degree of caution given the change of venue and slight change of timing. As it is, there are not many strong trends over the last 10 years.

As can be seen, all of the winners from 2008 onwards (the 2009 race was cancelled due to snow) went to horses under the age of seven, though the numbers are far less cut and dried if viewed in terms of % of rivals beaten.

Indeed, younger horses have won the race 73% of the time since the first running, in 1963, when the race was sponsored by you know who. Only two of the 14 declared are older than seven this time round.

There is essentially nothing in those weight-carried figures, or in BHA mark (the two are related), which is not shown. All the last 10 winners had finished in the first three on their most recent start, but %RB again shows that fact could get overstated.

Those figures for “Performance at Betfair SP” – a feature from this race’s sponsor which came into existence a couple of months before that 2008 running – require some explanation. As flat stakes can be heavily skewed by freak results in a small sample, they have instead been calculated as if each bet were to return 100 points.

Proportionally more is “staked” on shorter-priced horses than longer-priced ones. The results show that both those categories have out-performed the middle range of horses between 15 and 30 (14/1 and 29/1).

To cut to the chase, the Betfair Hurdle can be treated much like any other valuable handicap in which potential meets head on with achievement. Often enough, potential gets overbet, but in this instance I strongly suspect it will prevail.

Two promising novices dominate the betting, in Al Dancer and Getaway Trump, and could easily fill the first two places. But anyone who deals in sectionals is likely to have a preference for the former over the latter.

While Getaway Trump was pretty fast when second to Champ in the Challow Novices’ Hurdle at Newbury in December, Al Dancer was something else entirely when annihilating his rivals in what had seemed a competitive handicap at Cheltenham earlier in that month.

The overall time was useful – 132 timefigure from Timeform – but Al Dancer’s 56.1s from the second-last (just over half a mile from home) saw him power 11 lengths and more clear of his rivals, including a 14.5s uphill final furlong.

The horse who got closest to Al Dancer that day – Not That Fuisse – won off the same mark at Taunton next time, while the next six home all made the first four on their following starts.

Al Dancer beat some solid, in form, rivals, and he beat them pointless. That sectional suggests he is capable of coping with a rise in his mark to one of 141, and that he indeed may well be one of the best novice hurdlers around (he is currently fourth favourite for the Supreme at the Cheltenham Festival).

A well-run two miles looks ideal for Al Dancer, and I think he will take a lot of beating if giving his running.

In addition to Getaway Trump, who may also be ahead of his mark but who could be a two-and-a-half miler at this level, Al Dancer has to cope with the likes of solid handicappers Lisp and Mont des Avaloirs – who both have to concede a small amount of weight to him – and the honest if somewhat limited Magic Dancer.

They are all candidates for picking up some valuable place money at longer prices, but there will be only one winner, and Al Dancer is by some way the likeliest contender for that honour.

Recommendation: 2 pts win AL DANCER at 5/2