Rowleyfile Preview: bet365 Gold Cup Handicap Chase

Sandown has ensured that the 2018/2019 British Jumps season will go out not with a whimper but a bang, thanks to some classy action on the final day on Saturday, including an appearance from one of the best chasers of the modern era in Altior.

That will come in the Celebration Chase at 3 o’clock, but there is a more challenging betting puzzle 35 minutes later in the form of the bet365 Gold Cup Handicap Chase (formerly the Whitbread), for which 20 runners plus two reserves have been declared.

The race has a long and illustrious history, with winners including such legends as Arkle and Mill House in the early years. The sponsors may have changed, but the race has remained much the same – a good-class affair over in excess of three and a half miles – which means that “trends” are likely to have some relevance.

The following are some of the chief findings from the last 10 editions of the race, with higher numbers for place impact value and for % of rivals beaten best, as usual.

There is not a lot in some of those %RB figures – which usually have to fall outside the 45% to 55% range to be considered meaningful – though you should not be put off younger or older horses, or off horses in the mid-range of weights, or those coming off a lay-off of greater than eight weeks.

Perhaps of more interest is that a prominent finishing position last time – with seconds/thirds out-performing winners – can be considered a positive and that horses high on Timeform weight-adjusted ratings have fared well.

There is a degree to which both the horses and the humans may be feeling the pace at this advanced stage of the season: quick turnarounds and/or poor efforts last time may be a sign of going to the well once too often.

None of the trainers with runners in Saturday’s race has especially good figures in recent weeks (as judged by %RB in handicaps since the start of the Cheltenham Festival in March), and Venetia Williams (42%), Nigel Twiston-Davies (45%) and Charlie Longsdon (45%) are poorest of those with a reasonable number of qualifiers.

In terms of ticks in boxes, two horses come out best: Talkischeap (young, right weight-range, off a 63-day layoff and highly rated) and The Young Master (old, right weight-range, third last time but not so well in on the figures).

Both look to be significant players and Talkischeap is the most interesting of all. He mixed it with the leading novice chasers La Bague Au Roi and Lostinstranslation early in the campaign before getting off the mark over larger obstacles in a match at Doncaster, again putting up what appeared to be a decidedly smart performance.

His latest effort in a valuable handicap at Kempton was a bit underwhelming – he finished fifth to Walt when favourite – but he can now benefit from “the pause that refreshes” and from having missed Cheltenham and Aintree.

He comes into this a relatively fresh horse and one who promises to be suited by his first try at further than three miles. Unlike some in Saturday’s field, he does not need the ground to be softer than the forecast “good (good to firm in places)”.

The Young Master is a past winner of this race, in 2016, and the one-two-three from 12 months ago – Step Back (heavily backed and no longer obvious value, if he ever was), Rock The Kasbah and Present Man – all go as well, though none of whom ran well last time.

Rather surprisingly, for a race of this consequence, there is only one last-time winner on show, the top-weight Beware The Bear, who would need to be bordering on Cheltenham Gold Cup class to win this.

Talkischeap receives 15 lb off him, and though he has achieved less to date, he promises to achieve a similar amount in due course. Even at joint-favourite at the time of writing, he is one to be interested in with a number of positive indications against his name.

Whatever your fancy, it is worth backing it each way, all other things being equal, and it is slightly better to back it at one-fifth the win odds for five places than at one-quarter for four, providing you get the same win price. The win book is around 126%, while the per-place book is around 104% in the first scenario and 99% in the second.

Recommendation: 1 pt e/w Talkischeap at 8/1, one-fifth win odds first five places