Rowleyfile Preview: bet365 Gold Cup Chase

It has been a long old haul, but what a jumps season it has been! The likes of Don Cossack, Annie Power, Thistlecrack, Cue Card, Sprinter Sacre, Faugheen and Douvan have provided thrills and quality aplenty. So much so that even a Flat fan, as I primarily am these days, may be sorry to see it end.

The final day of action at Sandown features a showdown between Paul Nicholls and Willie Mullins for the British jumps trainers’ championship, as well as the concluding big handicap chase of the campaign.

That is the bet365 Gold Cup – or “the Whitbread” to those of us of a certain vintage – over more than three and a half miles and 24 fences on ground that is forecast to be “good, good to firm in a few places”. Twenty are due to go to post.

As is customary with these previews, I will look at a few trends, and consider more form-based measures before coming up with a selection(s). But, first, it must be emphasised that anyone considering a bet in the race should make themselves familiar with their options in general.  

In mathematical terms, you would need to stake £116 in proportion to every horses’ best early odds to guarantee a return of £100 on the win market regardless of the outcome, but you would need to stake only £77 to get the same result on the place market for those bookmakers (including the sponsors) who are offering one quarter the odds for the first five places.

Bookmakers do not allow you to bet “place only” at conventional odds – for what must be fairly obvious reasons by now! – but they do allow you to bet “win and place” (i.e. each way), and you would be a fool not to entertain that possibility at the least.    

Those trends do not tell us an awful lot, but they indicate that: seven-year-olds have the best record (those age-groups not represented on Saturday have been left out); last-time winners have fared well; BHA mark (which has been the subject of inflation over the years) counts for little; and that a quick turnaround can be considered a negative.

Measures like weight carried (which is associated with BHA mark, of course), number of runs in current season and number of wins in current season showed no discernible effect.

There are no last-time winners in Saturday’s field, and only five runners who made the first four on their latest starts (with Henri Parry Morgan closest due to a last-time second). There are also only two seven-year-olds, in the form of The Young Master and Gold Futures.

It has been a remarkably good season on the clock for two-mile novice chasers, mostly courtesy of the aforementioned Douvan but also through the likes of Ar Mad and Arzal. The staying novices have not run so fast but there was a strong indication in last week’s Scottish Grand National, in which they finished first and third, that as a group the better ones may be well-handicapped.

There are just three novices in this field, and two of them are strong qualifiers in terms of time, namely Henri Parry Morgan and Measureofmydreams. Both seem likely to be suited by the test they face, and both should be backed here.

Henri Parry Morgan found only Native River too good in the Mildmay Novices’ Chase at Aintree last time, a performance from the latter that earned him the fastest timefigure of the season in the staying novice division. A winner on good to firm, and a gelding who promises to be suited by long distances, Henri Parry Morgan is really thriving on his racing.

Measureofmydreams might be considered a slightly riskier conveyance, having made a few mistakes at Cheltenham on his penultimate start and come down early in the Scottish Grand National last time. But that he is reasonably treated at least off 146 does not seem in much doubt.  

He was only six lengths behind Native River on the former occasion, despite possibly finding the four miles a bit far, and before that was causing Black Hercules some problems when that rival’s departure at the last left him to win the Ten Up Novice Chase at Navan in a good time.

It is no great surprise to see Southfield Theatre as favourite following a promising run at Cheltenham last time, but odds of around 6/1 for him look too short. Many of the rest – seasoned handicappers most of them – do not seem to be going anywhere at present.

Side with the novices, or those two novices at least, to strike in a big staying chase for the second weekend running. And side with them each way, mindful of the mathematics spelt out earlier in this piece.

Recommendations:

1 pt each-way HENRI PARRY MORGAN

1 pt each-way MEASUREOFMYDREAMS

(both 1/4 odds first five places)