Rowleyfile Preview: Becher Chase

A disclaimer up front: the usual “trends” that feature in these previews look like being of little assistance where the Randox Health Becher Chase at Aintree on Saturday is concerned.

That said, “little assistance” is not the same as “no assistance”, and there are other factors pertinent to the race in question which can be established and which need to be considered.

Arguably the most important is that this, as an 18-runner handicap, is a good race for an each-way bet. The best odds at the time of writing point to a 119% win book (you would need to stake £119 in total in proportion to all the horses’ win odds to guarantee a return of £100 regardless of the result) but the same is just 96% per-place at a quarter those win odds for the first four places.

Unless you know something convincing about your selection that makes you steer clear of an each-way bet, then an each-way bet should be the preferred way to go.

Another meaningful piece of evidence is that we can expect nearly half of the field not to complete, judged on events in the last decade. Fallers and unseateds stand at 26.4% and pulled-ups at 17.8%: that maps to five and three respectively this year, with 10 finishers.

To no-one’s great surprise, jumping prowess is at a premium around the unique National fences. These are the by-fence completion rates of horses in Saturday’s race over those fences previously:

Vieux Lion Rouge’s record is a phenomenal one: he has jumped every fence in seven attempts on the course, winning this race in 2016 and finishing second (to Walk In The Mill) 12 months ago.

Those rather odd figures from Definitly Red are due to his jumping the first eight fences in the 2017 Grand National then being pulled up with a slipped saddle. Vintage Clouds fell at the first in this year’s Grand National.    

One more factor to consider is the likely pace. Timeform forecasts it to be “strong”, and that may even be an underestimation given that seven of the declared runners have consolidated Early Position Figures of 2.2 or less (indicating front-runners/pace-forcers).

The Becher Chase is just short of three and a quarter miles but looks set to be run on soft going, and that pace scenario should mean that stayers come to the fore.

Let’s look at those trends anyway, with, as usual, higher figures for place impact values and for % of rivals beaten worth looking out for.

There is not much to be seen with age (the real veterans are not disadvantaged), BHA mark or last-time position (though a prominent one is not the positive it usually is).

Having had no previous runs in the current season is a modest plus, while favourites and (even more) outsiders have outperformed the in-betweeners as judged by Betfair SP with stake varied in line with odds to return 100 points.

After all that, I have no strong fancies, but I am prepared to put up a couple against the field given those mathematically advantageous each-way terms.

One For Arthur probably has a second Grand National here as his main target this term, but he shaped quite encouragingly when fourth to Mysteree at Kelso recently and should have a race run to suit him. A £150,000-added prize is not to be sniffed at, and there are plenty of place rewards on offer, too.

Abolitionist is a bit more of a Hail Mary, but this one was third off a higher mark in the Irish Grand National in 2017 and simply has not had a clear run at things since. He is the joint-second-oldest horse on show, at 11 years, but that is not in itself a negative, as we have seen. He is another who shaped with some promise on his recent return.

At the other end of the market, it is easy to see why people might warm to Mulcahys Hill, but he does seem a short price for a young horse with limited experience of chasing (and none of these fences), and for one who could well race close to that anticipated strong pace.

Vieux Lion Rouge must be long odds-on to complete again, but it will need more than top marks in self-preservation to hit the target here.

Recommendations: 1 pt e/w ONE FOR ARTHUR at 9/1, 0.5 pt e/w ABOLITIONIST at 25/1