Rowleyfile Preview: Ayr Gold Cup

At the elite level, winning in sport is all about the smallest of edges: “marginal gains”, if you like, though that term has acquired more sinister connotations in other disciplines. 

If yours was the first horse’s name out of the hat for the draw for Saturday’s William Hill-sponsored Ayr Gold Cup, the best stall to choose, based on historical data in the same race, was mid-to-low, perhaps stall 8.

That is exactly what happened when the draw was performed on Thursday morning, with Staxton the beneficiary. After eight of the 25 horses had emerged, every connection had picked between 4 and 14 inclusive.

There is not a lot in the effect of the draw on Ayr’s straight six furlongs, and nor should we expect there to be. But “not a lot” is not the same as “nothing”. It actually appears as if connections did their homework in this instance for once. Or maybe the first one did and the rest simply followed suit.

The following draw and pace map gives the % of rivals beaten for the stall in question and the two on either side for 2008 to 2016 inclusive and separately for the quintet of races in that time period that took place on soft/heavy going. The message is similar in both cases. 

Not only have middle-to-low stalls been marginally favoured, the way that self-selecting draw on Thursday panned out means that the vast majority of pace appears to be on that part of the course also. That small edge may have got bigger.

We can also look at a few more conventional “trends”, considering the same 2008 to 2016 data (the race was re-routed to Haydock 12 months ago).

There are conflicting messages from those age findings: impact values speak well of three-year-olds, but %RB does not, whereas the situation is almost the reverse with older horses.

Horses carrying higher weights have fared better than those that have not, if not to a great degree, while a first-three finish on the most recent start has been a positive, though perhaps not much more than might be expected.

Those findings for “Chance On Adjusted Timeform Ratings” are perhaps most impressive. The sprint handicapper, whoever that might be, has managed only one winner from nine within 2 lb of the top-rated, but has done markedly better in terms of horses being placed and beating a sizeable percentage of their rivals.

It is no secret that Son of Rest is high up in the ratings this time, having returned to form when a closing second to Havana Grey in the Flying Five Stakes at the Curragh on Sunday. That was a Group 1 in name only, but it still makes Son of Rest look well-treated off a BHA mark of 101: the Irish counterpart had him on 108 at the beginning of this campaign.

Son of Rest is effective at 5f/6f and goes well on soft/heavy going, so a good run seems likely. But, if you have backed him, you probably should not be too chuffed by his draw in stall 17 and by the relative lack of pace at higher than 12.

A couple catch the eye in lower stalls, and the suggestion is to back them both each way in a race in which place terms are quite advantageous compared to win only.

Flying Pursuit is one of those likely to be getting on with it towards the far rail, and is in better form than his sixth of 20 in the Great St Wilfrid at Ripon last time suggests, second home on his side of the course. He was victorious at York the time before and has won both times he has encountered truly heavy going (as judged by Timeform) previously.

The gelding that Flying Pursuit beat at York, with the pair well clear by sprinting standards, was his stable-companion Golden Apollo, who seems to be following him around as he is berthed in the adjacent stall to Flying Pursuit, 4 compared to 3.

Golden Apollo has underperformed in cheekpieces (dispensed with here) twice since York, but he did not do at all badly when ninth in the Portland Handicap at Doncaster a week ago, considering the shorter trip, quicker going and lack of a proper pace burnout all counted against him.

“A proper pace burnout” is at least a possibility here, given the number of usual pace-forcers in attendance, and Golden Apollo could be well placed to pick up the pieces if that transpires.

Both Flying Pursuit and Golden Apollo still look reasonably treated on that recent York form and figure at decent prices. You could do a lot worse than having them both on your side, in my view.

Recommendations:

0.5 pt e/w FLYING PURSUIT and 0.5 pt e/w GOLDEN APOLLO in the Ayr Gold Cup on Saturday