Rowleyfile Preview: Ayr Gold Cup

The Ayr Gold Cup, sponsored since 2008 by William Hill, has been around for well over two centuries, though in something like its current form for about half that time. In its early days, it was run in two heats of two miles and restricted to horses bred and trained in Scotland: change is for the better sometimes!

Either way, it is very well-established in the Racing Calendar as a race of note which has produced some high-class winners. Subsequent Group 1 winner Brando took the race in 2016, while the subsequent King’s Stand, Nunthorpe and dual Abbaye winner Lochsong, in 1992, was the best winner of what has been described as “the modern era”.

Before that, the gargantuan Roman Warrior – a horse described in Timeform’s Racehorses annual as “a colossus of a horse with a heart to match” – carted a big weight to victory in 1975 and registered a 132 rating.

It seems unlikely that there is anything of their calibre lurking in this year’s 25-strong field, but who knows?! The ante-post favourite Buffer Zone is smart and going the right way, though this represents his stiffest assignment to date.

The nature of the Ayr Gold Cup makes it worth analysing from a “trends” perspective. In the following I have considered data from the last 10 editions of the race at Ayr, ignoring the 2017 running at Haydock and including last year’s dead-heat between Son of Rest and Baron Bolt.

First up, let’s look at the draw – which was one in which connections got to choose their stalls – as well as the likely pace.

Stalls 7 to 12 were snapped up quickly, and with some – rather than a lot of – justification. Those figures highlighted in red are positive, but only just; those highlighted in blue are negative, but again only just (% of rivals beaten figures are for the stall in question and the two stalls on either side).

There is pace across the track, but most obviously in stalls 10 and 20 judged by Timeform’s unique consolidated Early Position Figures.

There is not a huge amount to be seen here, but every little helps, and being around the stalls 8 to 10 region is unlikely to be a disadvantage.

What about some of the more obvious trends? These are the ones which stood out.

Five-year-olds have the best record, and there are only five of them in Saturday’s race. Horses running off higher handicap marks have outperformed those that have not, while horses that finished in the first three last time out and which have a good chance on Timeform weight-adjusted ratings have fared well, as have horses in the mid-range of betting as gauged by Betfair SP.

There may be one or two matters of concern there for supporters of the aforementioned Buffer Zone, if only one or two. In addition, it may be observed at this point that Buffer Zone’s latest start, and impressive victory, at the Curragh came in a surprisingly slow overall time, though it was the only race at that distance on a card for which a possibly changeable wind was a factor.

If we accept that race as being as good as it looked, and not as bad as the timefigure suggests – and I believe we should – then it does not definitely follow that Buffer Zone deserves to be favourite in any case.

Two places and less than two lengths behind Buffer Zone that day was Gulliver, who got stuck in traffic before making ground hand over fist at the death. He is 4 lb better off with Buffer Zone here, is drawn in stall 9 (potentially a good berth), is a five-year-old and made the first three last time.

In addition to the trends, Gulliver has other form that makes him look quite nicely treated in this, but it is that barnstorming finish at the Curragh which really takes the eye.

The David O’Meara-trained gelding is well suited by six furlongs, fairly neutral ground (as seems likely here) and in coming late. The last-named should be easier with the pace forecast as “very strong” by Timeform.

The way to back Gulliver, as with most large-field handicaps, is each way while looking for special concessions on the place element of the bet. If he turns up in the sort of form he was in at the Curragh, but with the crucial rub of the green in addition this time, he surely will not be far away.

Recommendation:

1 pt e/w GULLIVER at 8/1 (take five or more places if possible)