Rowleyfile Preview: Ascot Stakes 2016

There is something rather odd about a Royal Ascot, in the height of summer, that is likely to commence on ground a fair bit softer than good, and there is something rather odd about its opening-day handicap featuring several contenders better known for their exploits in the “winter game” of jumping.

That is what we have to contend with where the Ascot Stakes Handicap on Tuesday is concerned. Forecast going of between “soft” and “good to soft” will at least be familiar to many. What will be familiar to only a few is the marathon Flat distance of two and a half miles.

As usual, it is worth looking at some of the “trends” over the last decade, though they probably count for less in this race than in most.

It would be wrong to suggest that the draw makes a big difference but there is evidence – notably from those win and place impact values, and from the % of rivals beaten – that a wide stall is anything but a disadvantage (probably due to horses crowding to the far rail early on).

Four-year-olds have fared best by age group (only Mill Springs and Wolfcatcher qualify this year), last-time winners have done notably well (three in this year’s field won on the Flat last time, two have done so over hurdles since last running on the Flat) and horses running off short or long absences have underperformed overall.

It is also the case that horses with more than two runs already in the current Flat season have done worse than might be expected, while runners in the mid-to-low weight range have done better (though the BHA has ensured that this is a very movable target).

It is also well worth checking out what the various contenders have achieved over hurdles, in terms of ability and suitability for the task ahead.

Only six of the 20 do not have a Timeform hurdle rating, but what may be a bit more unexpected is the degree to which Sempre Medici and Jennies Jewel dominate the others that do. Sempre Medici started 16/1 in the latest Champion Hurdle (but was pulled up), while Jennies Jewel was second in the Champion Stayers Hurdle at Punchestown in April.

Crucially, the former has raced only at around two and two-and-a-half miles – and does not promise to stay further – while the latter gets three miles well in the mud.

Despite such a profile, Jennies Jewel has proved highly effective at up to two miles on the Flat to date, winning her last two races by clear-cut margins.

She trotted up in an 11-runner handicap at the Curragh last time despite that race being steadily-run and testing her proven stamina less than it might have.

Another thing came to light that day, namely that Jennies Jewel had been covered by the jumps sire Presenting (the product of that union should stay well!). Since then, those horses to have run from the Curragh race have upheld the form.

That is a good job, as Jennies Jewel has gone up 10 lb in the handicap as a result, but that should be nothing like enough if she is anywhere near the calibre on the Flat as she is over hurdles.

A decent case can be made for Silver Concorde on his third in the Chester Cup, though he is near the other end of the handicap, and for Moscato, who is steadily progressive and likely to cope well with this trip. But Jennies Jewel may well still be notably well in (if Sempre Medici can be considered a doubtful stayer), and conditions have turned in her favour.

The early odds have the win book at around 125% and the place book at only around 102% per-place (assuming four places), which would usually prompt an each-way play. But Jennies Jewel looks an all-or-nothing proposition, and odds of 12/1 at the time of writing are tempting enough.

Recommendation: 1 pt win JENNIES JEWEL