Rowleyfile Preview: 32Red Gold Cup

It is a moot point as to what degree the Ayr Gold Cup that will take place this Saturday resembles the Ayr Gold Cup that was meant to take place a week ago, and had taken place with little interruption for over two centuries previously.

In some respects, it should be similar: it will take place at a straight six furlongs on testing ground and all but two of the 17 now declared were among the 25 who stood their ground a week ago.

In others, it should not be: Haydock is a different course to Ayr, if not very much so, and the dynamics will have changed along with the draw.

Clearly, that draw needs to be looked at afresh. To do that, I considered its effect in all 6f handicaps at Haydock this decade when there have been more than 12 runners and the ground has been softer than good. There were 10 such races and this is what they produced.

There is not a big bias there, and nor should we expect one on a straight course, but horses drawn very low have won only about as third as often as might be expected and beaten just 43.5% of their rivals, where 50.0% is par.

Orion’s Bow was drawn in stall 1 a week ago, which looked like being no bad thing, but is potentially more disadvantaged in the same berth this time.

Some other trends from the Ayr Gold Cup in the last 10 years are more generic and are worth quoting here. Again, a high “impact value” (especially for places) and a high “% of rivals beaten” are the best indicators.

Neither of the three-year-olds declared a week ago has stood its ground, but five of the five-year-olds have done, and that is the most favoured age-group. A higher weight has been better than a lower weight, at least as judged by %RB. And a good last-time position and chance on Timeform ratings has been a positive, as is usually the case.

I also looked at the “form” of trainers with runners in the rescheduled race, as measured by %RB in handicaps since the middle of August. Ed Walker (Aeolus) and John Gosden (Johnny Barnes) led the way on 69.1% and 67.6% respectively, with Eve Johnson Houghton, William Haggas and Andrew Balding not far behind.

A week ago, I was primarily interested in Stake Acclaim, as a well-drawn five-year-old who was much better than his most recent run suggests. He still makes appeal, though his draw this time (in stall 11) is not quite so inviting.

Stake Acclaim ran his best race when third to Ice Age in the Sprint Finale at Windsor on his penultimate start and is 8 lb better with that rival for just over a length. His down-the-back effort in the Portland Handicap at Doncaster last time should not be taken at face value, as he looked like getting placed before being stopped in his tracks a furlong out.

However, the claims of another of his rivals, Johnny Barnes, appear to have strengthened somewhat in the meantime. The fellow five-year-old looks better drawn now than when due to be in the centre of the course at Ayr, and the form of both his Goodwood win in August and that of his stable continues to look notably strong.  

That Goodwood win came at seven furlongs, but Johnny Barnes shapes like he will be fine at a furlong shorter given soft ground and a strong pace. The presence of six horses on Saturday with Timeform EPFs of 2.2 or less (indicating a pace-forcing profile) suggests both those requirements will be met.

What is for sure is that a 17-runner handicap in which bookmakers go one quarter the odds the first four places is an attractive one for each-way bettors (always assuming there is not more than one non-runner).

The win book at early prices is 120% (£120 would need to be invested proportionally to each horse’s odds to guarantee a return of £100 come what may), but the per-place book is just 97%, and those figures are likely to improve as competition heats up.

In such circumstances, two each-way bets can be justified, so that is the recommendation.

Recommendations: 1 pt each way JOHNNY BARNES at 8/1, 0.5 pt each way STAKE ACCLAIM at 16/1, both ¼ odds first four places.

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